2013 Dollar General 200 Odds, Free Picks and Predictions – Favorites and Sleepers: If you thought that the loaded field for the last weekend’s Nationwide race at Daytona was a one-time deal, think again. In addition to the five or six series regular that have a legitimate shot at the championship, the big names on the entry list for this weekend’s race at Phoenix include Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski and Matt Kenseth. Heck, Jimmie Johnson is even making a rare Nationwide start. It should be interesting to see how the stacked field handles the tight, flat corners at Phoenix, especially if the action starts getting physical. Track position is always key at PIR, but there is more than one way to get out front.
The importance of track position was on full display at the track last March when Elliott Sadler used a little strategy to get to Victory Lane. Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin dominated most of the race, combining to lead 163 of the 200 laps. However, Sadler elected to gamble for track position rather than for the comfort of four tires, and the gamble paid off. Sadler’s car came to life out front in clean air, and he was able to hold off the rest of the field in the closing laps to secure the win.
2013 Dollar General 200 Odds, Free Picks and Predictions
The Favorites
He has made 18 Nationwide starts at Phoenix since the start of the 2001 season, and Kevin Harvick has compiled an incredible 5.9 average finish in those starts. He actually has just a single victory at the track during the stretch, but he has 15 total top-five finishes, including four second-place efforts. Plain and simple, Harvick is basically a lock to be at the front of the field Saturday, and he is always a threat to win at PIR.
Although he has made just a single start at Phoenix in the Nationwide Series since the start of the 2008 season, Matt Kenseth could still make a lot of noise this weekend. After all, he is riding a streak of seven straight finishes of eighth or better at the track that began back in 2004. During the stretch, Kenseth has made one trip to Victory Lane and finished second twice.
After going winless in 2012, Kyle Busch is back under the Joe Gibbs Racing banner in 2013, and his results should reflect it. While driving for JGR, he has notched four Nationwide wins at Phoenix in his career. Busch managed a fourth-place run at PIR last fall while driving for his own race team, and now that he is back with JGR, win No. 5 in the desert could be on tap for Saturday.
Fresh off a Daytona 500 victory, Jimmie Johnson is set to make just his second Nationwide Series start in the last four years. Despite not driving in the series very often, counting out the five-time Cup Series champ would just be foolish. After all, he does have four wins at Phoenix at the Cup level, along with a series-leading 6.7 average finish. There is no reason he can’t put up the same type of elite numbers this Saturday in a Nationwide car.
The Dark Horses
His results have been hit or miss at Phoenix, but Elliott Sadler is capable of pulling off an upset this weekend. In fact, he did just that last March when he went to Victory Lane at the track. Defending his win won’t be easy against such a loaded field, but Sadler is one series regular that is used to taking on and beating the Cup drivers on a consistent basis.
Last fall, Brian Vickers made his first start in Phoenix in the Nationwide Series since 2007, and he made his presence felt. He showed little signs of rust, ultimately finishing second to Joey Logano. Vickers will be back for more this weekend, and after nearly winning despite the extended layoff, he could get over the hump and into Victory Lane now that he has been driving the Nationwide cars on a regular basis.
Sleeper Special
Austin Dillon was a rookie in the Nationwide Series last year, but you wouldn’t know it by his results at Phoenix. He finished fourth at the track in March, and he followed it up with a sixth-place effort in the fall. With a year of experience under his belt, Dillon is primed to challenge the big names throughout the 2013 season. He could put up one heck of a fight in the desert Saturday and maybe even spring the upset.
Not only has Trevor Bayne finished sixth and seventh in his last two Nationwide starts at Phoenix, but he will be driving for a team that has known nothing but success at the track. Bayne is taking over for two-time defending series champ Ricky Stenhouse Jr. in 2013, and Stenhouse finished ninth or better in all six of his starts at PIR, finishing in the top five in his last three. Bayne already managed solid results at the track, and with his new team, he could be even more of a threat.
Driver to Avoid
I fully expect Regan Smith to challenge for the Nationwide Series title in 2013, but Phoenix has never been one of his better tracks. In four starts at PIR, he has compiled an unimpressive 22.0 average finish. Smith has finished 24th or worse in three of those starts, and he shown no signs of being capable of competing for a victory, especially against a stacked field like the one he will be facing Saturday.
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Odds to win the 2013 Dollar General 200
301 Jimmie Johnson +400
302 Kyle Busch +400
303 Matt Kenseth +400
304 Kevin Harvick +500
305 Brad Keselowski +600
306 Brian Vickers +800
307 Elliott Sadler +1200
308 Austin Dillon +1200
309 Trevor Bayne +1500
310 Regan Smith +2500
311 Justin Allgaier +2500
312 Sam Hornish Jr +2500
313 Field +1000
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