2013 Daytona 500 Free Picks: Betting on Underdogs for Big Payoffs at Daytona International Speedway in Daytona Beach, Florida: The Daytona 500 is the most famous race in NASCAR, and it has also become one of the most upset-friendly races in the sport. To be fair, it is the track that has become upset friendly more than the Daytona 500 itself, but nonetheless, bettors have a chance to open the 2013 Sprint Cup season with a big pay day. The horsepower-sapping restrictor plates that bunch up the field give almost any driver in the draft and on the lead lap a puncher’s chance to win the race. Just ask Trevor Bayne, who won the Daytona 500 two years ago in just his second career Cup Series start. Bayne joined a list of unexpected Daytona 500 winners that includes the likes of Ward Burton, Jamie McMurray, Derrike Cope and Michael Waltrip. Whether or not another underdog joins the group this season remains to be seen, but the chances of an upset are as good Sunday at Daytona as they will be all season. With that in mind, here are a few drivers that could pay off big time for bettors.
His only victory at Daytona came in the July race early in his career, but veteran Jeff Burton has been recapturing his form at the track recently. Last year, he opened the season with a fifth-place finish in the Daytona 500 and followed it up with a second-place effort in the July race. In fact, Burton finished in the top 10 in all four restrictor-plate races in 2012, leaving little doubt that he has good feel for the draft these days. Last but not least, Burton finished in the top 10 in his qualifying race Thursday, showing that he didn’t get rusty during the offseason. Burton is currently getting 28/1 odds to win Sunday, which seem a little low for one of only two drivers that finished in the top five in both races at Daytona last year. Burton has consistently been finding a way to the front at the end of the plate races, and it is only a matter of time before it pays off with a win. If that win comes Sunday, there is a lot of money to be made.
Although Paul Menard only has one career victory at the Cup level, Daytona has shown time and time again that it doesn’t play favorites. More importantly, Menard has actually been putting up strong numbers at the track lately. He has reeled off four straight top-15 finishes at Daytona, logging three top-10s during the stretch. Not to mention the fact that his best career finish came in last year’s Daytona 500 when he finished sixth. Coming off a seventh-place run in his Budweiser Duel 150 Thursday, Menard is once again quietly hanging around the front at Daytona. At his current 33/1 odds, bettors stand to make a lot of noise if Menard’s ability to lurk near the front pays off with a win.
He needed to deliver in his qualifying race just to make the Daytona 500 field, and Austin Dillon did that and then some when finished a strong third in his Budweiser Duel 150 Thursday. The finish not only secured his place in the race, but it actually gave him a top-10 starting spot, as well. Granted, Dillon is young and inexperienced, but he did finish in the top five in his both his starts at Daytona in the Nationwide Series last year. He is also driving for Richard Childress Racing, which just so happens to be the same organization that owns pre-race favorite Kevin Harvick along with the two sleepers I already mentioned – Burton and Menard. RCR has one of the plate programs in the business, and at a track like Daytona, a great car can often trump inexperience. At 33/1 odds, enough pieces are in place for bettors to take a chance on Dillon.
Last but not least, bettors may want to consider longshot David Ragan. For one, his only career Cup Series win came at Daytona in July of 2011. Not to mention the fact that he was leading in the closing laps of the Daytona 500 that same year before being penalized. Yes, he did change teams between 2011 and 2012, but even with his new Front Row Motorsports team, Ragan still showed some of his old magic at the plate tracks. He finished in the top 10 in both races at Talladega last year, including a fourth-place run in the fall. Ragan has been an above average plate track driver since he broke into the series, and at his 100/1 odds, even a small wager can lead to a huge payoff.
Be sure to check the NSAwins.com Betting Daily Blog all week for updated 2013 Daytona 500 odds, free tips, free picks, predictions and articles from NASCAR expert tipster Brian Polking. NSAwins.com is your home for 2013 Daytona 500 Betting Odds and Handicapping coverage!
Odds to win the 2013 Daytona 500
101 Dale Earnhardt Jr +1000
102 Kyle Busch +1000
103 Denny Hamlin +1200
104 Kevin Harvick +1000
105 Brad Keselowski +1200
106 Matt Kenseth +1300
107 Clint Bowyer +1300
108 Carl Edwards +1500
109 Jeff Gordon +1200
110 Kasey Kahne +1500
111 Tony Stewart +1500
112 Jimmie Johnson +1500
113 Greg Biffle +1800
114 Jamie McMurray +2000
115 Martin Truex Jr +2000
116 Mark Martin +3000
117 Jeff Burton +3000
118 Joey Logano +3000
119 Kurt Busch +3000
120 Ryan Newman +4000
121 Juan Montoya +4000
122 Ricky Stenhouse +4000
123 Field +1400
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