2013 Bojangles’ Southern 500 Free Picks: Betting on Underdogs for Big Payoffs

2013 Bojangles’ Southern 500 Free Picks: Betting on Underdogs for Big Payoffs : From its tricky corners to its unusual racing groove right next to the outside wall, Darlington Raceway is one of the more unique tracks on the Cup Series schedule. Some of the biggest names in NASCAR history have been to Victory Lane at the track, but Darlington has also been the site of some of the bigger upsets. Ricky Craven and Regan Smith both pulled off surprise wins at the track in recent years, and two-time series champ Terry Labonte made Darlington the site of his last win after many thought his days of winning races were long gone. With that in mind, here is a closer look at some of the drivers that might be able to add to the list of surprise Darlington winners this weekend and deliver big payouts to bettors in the process.

After flirting with a major upset in the closing laps at Talladega last weekend, Regan Smith might just finish the job this weekend at Darlington. After all, the track is the site of his only Cup Series win to date, and when he won the Southern 500 in 2011, it was one of the biggest upsets in recent memory. Smith followed up his victory with another top-15 finish last year so it’s clear that he has a good feel for Darlington’s tricky layout. For those bettors worried about how the move to an underfunded team like Phoenix Racing will impact his chances, there is no need to panic. Keep in mind that Smith was driving for a single-care team in 2011 when he won at Darlington, and his current No. 51 team is 13th in the standings. His equipment is every bit as good as what he had to work with when he shocked the competition two years ago, and at his current 40/1 odds, it is worth hoping that history repeats itself this weekend.

Although he doesn’t have much of a resume at Darlington, Aric Almirola could still be worth taking a chance on this weekend as he prepares to make his second start at the track. For one, he did hold his own in his Darlington debut last year, finishing inside the top 20. More importantly, Almirola enters this weekend’s race in the middle of the best stretch of his career. He is riding a four-race streak of top-10 finishes, and he has moved inside the top 10 in the standings. Almirola has the look of a young driver that has finally flipped the switch, and the exclamation point on his hot streak could be a victory. With his current 50/1 odds, bettors may want to take a chance that his first trip to Victory Lane comes at “The Lady in Black” Saturday night.

While he hasn’t won at Darlington, Ryan Newman could be an absolute steal at his 50/1 odds. After all, his 12.4 average finish at the track is the sixth best among active drivers. More importantly, he has piled up plenty of excellent finishes. Newman has nine top-10 finishes in 14 starts at Darlington, including five top-five finishes. He also has two top-five finishes and three top-10s in four starts at the track since joining Stewart-Haas Racing in 2009. Newman also has a history of winning one random race each season. Whether it was Phoenix in 2010, New Hampshire in 2011 or Martinsville last year, history says he is going to end up in Victory Lane at least once in 2013. Given the consistency he has shown throughout his career at Darlington, this might just be the week he makes his yearly trip to Victory Lane.

Statistically speaking, Darlington is one of Jeff Burton’s best tracks. In addition to his 12.3 career average finish, he is a two-time winner at Darlington. Granted, both of his victories came in 2009, but he has remained very competitive at the track in recent years despite his overall numbers declining sharply. In his last seven starts at Darlington, Burton has finished 12th or better five times, logging four top-10 finishes during the stretch. The veteran’s patient style works well on Darlington’s tricky layout and rougher surface, and he is usually within striking distance of the frontrunners when crunch time rolls around. In recent years, several drivers have been able to pull off upsets at the track by using pit strategy late in the race, and Burton is one driver that should be in position to make a similar gamble Saturday night. He is also a 66/1 longshot to win so bettors may want to consider doing some gambling of their own in order to cash in if Burton pulls off the surprise.

His 20.0 average finish at Darlington isn’t all that exciting, but Marcos Ambrose has definitely been trending in the right direction at the track. He has improved his finishing position in all four starts, delivering finishes of 13th and ninth in 2011 and 2012. Ambrose is clearly getting progressively more comfortable with Darlington’s layout, and if his pattern of improvement continues, he should be right in the mix with the frontrunners this weekend. Of course, Ambrose has always been inconsistent, and as a result, he is a 100/1 longshot to win this weekend. However, Darlington is one of the few tracks where he has made steady gains, and at such long odds, even a small wager could turn into a big gain if Ambrose becomes the next surprise winner at Darlington.

Be sure to check the NSAwins.com Betting Daily Blog all week for updated 2013 Bojangles’ Southern 500 odds, free tips, free picks, predictions and articles from NASCAR expert tipster Brian Polking. NSAwins.com is your home for 2013 Bojangles’ Southern 500 Betting Odds and Handicapping coverage!

Odds to win the 2013 Bojangles’ Southern 500
101 Kyle Busch +600
102 Matt Kenseth +800
103 Jimmie Johnson +800
104 Denny Hamlin +800
105 Kasey Kahne +1000
106 Carl Edwards +1000
107 Brad Keselowski +1200
108 Greg Biffle +1200
109 Martin Truex Jr +1200
110 Jeff Gordon +1200
111 Clint Bowyer +1800
112 Tony Stewart +1500
113 Kevin Harvick +1800
114 Dale Earnhardt Jr +1800
115 Joey Logano +2500
116 Ricky Stenhouse +3000
117 Mark Martin +3000
118 Kurt Busch +4000
119 Jamie McMurray +4000
120 Field +2000

Check the latest NASCAR Odds and Betting Lines from BOVADA below: