2013 AdvoCare 500 Odds, Free Picks and Predictions: Jimmie Johnson the Vegas Favorite: The Cup Series heads back to Phoenix International Raceway this season, and the flat track is one of the most unique on the schedule. In addition to the lack of banking in the corners, Phoenix has two different sets of corners, meaning that a car can handle well in the first set of turns and struggle in the other or vice versa. Add in all the factors, and passing is notoriously difficult at Phoenix, and track position can definitely trump speed.
Last fall, Kyle Busch learned the lesson firsthand. He absolutely dominated the race, leading 237 of the 319 laps. However, a late caution set up a final restart, and Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin both got around Busch. Despite the fast car, Busch was never able to get back to the front, and Harvick ended up stealing away the win. The frustration that comes with the track’s tough passing conditions was also felt by Jeff Gordon and Clint Bowyer as the two came to blows after a late wreck.
The Favorites
Coming off a dominating win at Texas last weekend, Jimmie Johnson heads to a Phoenix track where he has always been excellent. His 6.5 average finish at Phoenix is by far the best in the series, and in 20 starts, he has 13 top-five finishes, including 12 in his last 14 starts. More importantly, Johnson has a series-leading four wins at the track during the stretch.
He is the defending winner of this weekend’s race, and Kevin Harvick has had a knack for mastering the flat corners of Phoenix. He is a three-time winner at the track in his career, and all three victories have come since the start of the 2006 season. Harvick has also finished either first or second in two of his last three starts at Phoenix so he continues to prove he knows how to get to the front and seal the deal at the track.
The Dark Horses
After winning at Phoenix early in the year, Carl Edwards will try for a season sweep at the track this weekend. He is also a two-time winner at the track overall with both wins coming in the last six races. In fact, Edwards has finished either first or second three times in the last six races at Phoenix so it wouldn’t be a shock to see him be a major factor Sunday.
His 2013 season has been a major disappointment, but Denny Hamlin could shake off the rust in a big way this weekend at Phoenix. After all, his 9.8 average finish at the track is the third best among active drivers. Meanwhile, he has finished sixth or better in nine of his 16 starts at the track, and in his last three starts, he has 2.0 average finish, including a win. Plain and simple, Hamlin knows how to handle the flat turns at Phoenix as well as any driver in the series.
Although he doesn’t win a ton of races, Ryan Newman does have tendency to get to victory lane at flat tracks. In fact, his last four wins have come at flat tracks, including a victory at Phoenix in 2010 and a win at Indianapolis earlier this year. Not to mention the fact that Newman has five top-five finishes in his last seven starts at Phoenix overall. Don’t count out Newman in the desert this weekend.
Sleeper Special
Veteran Mark Martin’s best days are behind him, but he still has tracks where he can get the job done, and Phoenix is on the list. His 9.4 average finish at the track is actually the second-best in the series, and in addition to finishing in the top 10 in two of his last three starts at Phoenix, he won at the track in 2009. Martin is a safe bet to finish near the front of the field, and with the a good break or two, he could pull off an upset.
Big Name to Avoid
While he is having a solid season, Clint Bowyer has had limited success at Phoenix. He has finished outside the top 20 in four of his last six starts at the track, and he has gone 10 straight races without finishing in the top five. More concerning is the fact that he has finished outside the top 25 in two of his last three starts at Phoenix. Bowyer has never won at the track, and there are no signs of that changing this weekend.
Be sure to check the NSAwins.com Betting Daily Blog all week for updated 2013 AdvoCare 500 odds, free tips, free picks, predictions and articles from NASCAR expert tipster Brian Polking. NSAwins.com is your home for 2013 AdvoCare 500 Betting Odds and Handicapping coverage!
Driver Odds to win the 2013 AdvoCare 500
Jimmie Johnson 7/4
Kyle Busch 5/1
Denny Hamlin 8/1
Matt Kenseth 8/1
Joey Logano 12/1
Brad Keselowski 12/1
Kasey Kahne 12/1
Clint Bowyer 12/1
Jeff Gordon 12/1
Kevin Harvick 12/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr 15/1
Martin Truex Jr 20/1
Carl Edwards 30/1
Kurt Busch 30/1
Greg Biffle 40/1
Ryan Newman 40/1
Juan Montoya 80/1
Jeff Burton 80/1
Marcos Ambrose 100/1
Justin Allgaier 100/1
Danica Patrick 100/1
Aric Almirola 100/1
Elliott Sadler 100/1
Ricky Stenhouse 100/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Mark Martin 100/1
Jamie McMurray 100/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 100/1
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