2013 AdvoCare 500 Free Picks: Betting on Underdogs for Big Payoffs: Phoenix International Raceway is one of the tougher tracks on the schedule. Thanks to its flat surface and two sets of corners that are very different, passing at Phoenix is difficult and finding a setup that feels completely comfortable is next to impossible. As a result, track position is crucial, and savvy pit strategy can often trump pure speed. In fact, the driver that has had the best car and has led the most laps has almost been at a disadvantage in recent years as the rest of the field simply uses a variety of tire and fuel strategies to try to steal away the win, and they have been pretty successful at it. When it comes down to it, any driver that is running near the front in the closing laps has a shot at the win if the cautions fall right, and with that in mind, here is a closer look at a few underdogs that could pull off the upset at Phoenix this weekend.
While he certainly doesn’t qualify as a longshot at his current 14/1 odds to win at Phoenix, Carl Edwards should still have the attention of bettors. After all, there are nine drivers currently favored ahead of him this weekend, and a couple of those drivers haven’t even won a race at Phoenix. Meanwhile, Edwards is going for a season sweep at the track after winning the March event earlier this year, and he has actually won two races in his last six starts at Phoenix. During the stretch, he has added a runner-up effort at the track so if you do the math, Edwards has finished either first or second in three of his last six starts at Phoenix. Are there really nine drivers that should be considered better options to win this weekend? Bettors thinking of going with one of the bigger names should strongly consider taking Edwards and his added payout potential.
Although he doesn’t win many races, Ryan Newman does have a knack for getting to victory lane at flat tracks. In fact, he his last four wins in the Cup Series have come at flat tracks, including a win at Phoenix in 2010 and a win at Indianapolis earlier this year. Newman has also been on a tear at Phoenix in general, reeling off five top-five finishes in his last seven starts at the track. During the stretch, no driver has more top-five finishes at the track. Newman is a 33/1 longshot to win this weekend, and bettors won’t find a driver with longer odds that has been consistently challenging for victories at Phoenix.
His consistency at Phoenix has stood the test of time, and entering Sunday’s race, Mark Martin’s 9.4 average finish at the track is the second best among in the series. With 31 top-20 finishes in 33 starts at Phoenix, he is almost a lock to have at least a fighting chance. More importantly, he is a two-time winner at the track with his most recent win coming in 2009, and he has also finished in the top 10 in two of his last three starts at the track. Martin is a 66/1 longshot to win this weekend so the potential payoff is fairly sizeable, especially for a driver that has been in consistent contention at the track for more than two decades.
Oval tracks have never his forte, but Juan Pablo Montoya has always run surprisingly well at Phoenix compared to other oval tracks. He has finished in the top 20 in his last eight starts at the track, and more importantly, he has finished in the top 15 in his last four starts in the desert, including three straight top-12 finishes. During the stretch, he has finished as high as fifth, and he has even led more than 100 laps in a single race at the track. For whatever reason, Montoya has a good feel for Phoenix, and he has had cars capable of leading laps and competing for wins at the track. At his current 66/1 odds, he could be a steal for bettors this weekend.
Be sure to check the NSAwins.com Betting Daily Blog all week for updated 2013 AdvoCare 500 odds, free tips, free picks, predictions and articles from NASCAR expert tipster Brian Polking. NSAwins.com is your home for 2013 AdvoCare 500 Betting Odds and Handicapping coverage!
Driver Odds to win the 2013 AdvoCare 500
Jimmie Johnson 7/4
Kyle Busch 5/1
Denny Hamlin 8/1
Matt Kenseth 8/1
Joey Logano 12/1
Brad Keselowski 12/1
Kasey Kahne 12/1
Clint Bowyer 12/1
Jeff Gordon 12/1
Kevin Harvick 12/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr 15/1
Martin Truex Jr 20/1
Carl Edwards 30/1
Kurt Busch 30/1
Greg Biffle 40/1
Ryan Newman 40/1
Juan Montoya 80/1
Jeff Burton 80/1
Marcos Ambrose 100/1
Justin Allgaier 100/1
Danica Patrick 100/1
Aric Almirola 100/1
Elliott Sadler 100/1
Ricky Stenhouse 100/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Mark Martin 100/1
Jamie McMurray 100/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 100/1
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