2013 Aaron’s 499 Odds, Free Picks and Predictions – Aaron’s 499 Favorites and Sleepers to Win on May 5, 2013 at Talladega Superspeedway in Talladega, Alabama: The Cup Series heads to Talladega Superspeedway this weekend for the Aaron’s 499, and the race is always among the most exciting and unpredictable of the year. Thanks to the restrictor plates that NASCAR mandates at the track in order to control speeds, the drivers spend the entire race bunched together in large packs. The end result is always a big wreck or two, leaving the drivers that survive the mayhem to battle it in the final laps.
Last spring, the Roush Fenway Racing duo of Matt Kenseth and Greg Biffle attempted to control the action from start to finish, and they nearly pulled it off. With Biffle pinned to his rear bumper, Kenseth led a race-high 73 laps and was out front when the final caution flew. However, a wild restart resulted in Brad Keselowski storming to the front thanks to a push from Kyle Busch, who then attempted to dive underneath Keselowski coming out of the final corner. Keselowski countered by jumping to the high side of the track, allowing him to break Busch’s momentum and hang on for the win.
2013 Aaron’s 499 Odds, Free Picks and Predictions
The Favorites
The first time he got behind the wheel at Talladega in a Cup Series race, Brad Keselowski went to Victory Lane. He hasn’t slowed down since, notching six top-10s in eight starts and compiling a series-leading 12.3 average finish at the track. Keselowski has been even better recently, logging a 4.0 average finish in his last three starts and winning at Talladega for the second time in his career last spring.
No driver has been hotter at the plate tracks lately than Matt Kenseth. Dating back to last seasons, he leads all drivers in wins, top-five finishes, laps led and points scored in superspeedway races. One of his wins came at Talladega last fall, and Kenseth finished third in his other start at the track in 2012.
His last win at Talladega came in 2004, but Dale Earnhardt Jr. knows how to win at the massive superspeedway. After all, his five career victories at the track are the second most among active drivers, and it’s not like he has been bad at Talladega lately either. Junior has a 7.5 average finish in the last six spring races at the track.
The Dark Horses
While he has never won at Talladega, it seems like only a matter of time before Greg Biffle changes that. He finished fifth and sixth in two starts at Talladega last year, and since the start of 2012, he leads all drivers with an 8.2 average finish at the restrictor plate tracks. Biffle has been at or near the front at the end of every superspeedway race lately, and he is long overdue for a trip to Victory Lane.
Veteran Jeff Burton hasn’t really been a factor to win many races in recent years, but the plate tracks have been the exception. In fact, he has reeled off three straight top-10s at Talladega, including a second-place run in 2011 when he was leading until the last hundred yards or so. If Burton is going to get one last win before he retires, Talladega is one of the most likely spots.
Sleeper Special
Although he has failed to realize his potential up to this point, David Ragan has always been able to make some noise at restrictor plate tracks. His only career Cup win to date came at Daytona, and his 16.0 average finish at Talladega is actually the third best among active drivers. Perhaps most importantly, Ragan finished fourth and seventh in two start at Talladega last year in his first season with Front Row Motorsports, proving that the reason for his success had more to do with his ability than the equipment he was driving. He is an afterthought just about every week, but Ragan could pull the upset Sunday.
Big Name to Avoid
He is having an excellent rebound season, but Carl Edwards has never enjoyed a ton of success at Talladega. In addition to a mediocre 21.8 average finish at the track, he has managed just a single top-five finish in 17 starts. Worse yet, Edwards has just one top-10 in his last 12 starts at Talladega. Throw in the fact that he has never won at a superspeedway at the Cup level, and it’s tough to justify backing Edwards this weekend.
Be sure to check the NSAwins.com Betting Daily Blog all week for updated 2013 Aaron’s 499 odds, free tips, free picks, predictions and articles from NASCAR expert tipster Brian Polking. NSAwins.com is your home for 2013 Aaron’s 499 Betting Odds and Handicapping coverage!
Odds to win the 2013 Aaron’s 499
101 Dale Earnhardt Jr +1200
102 Matt Kenseth +1200
103 Kevin Harvick +1200
104 Kyle Busch +1200
105 Jimmie Johnson +1200
106 Clint Bowyer +1200
107 Tony Stewart +1200
108 Jeff Gordon +1200
109 Brad Keselowski +1200
110 Kasey Kahne +1400
111 Carl Edwards +1600
112 Greg Biffle +1600
113 Denny Hamlin +2000
114 Brian Vickers
115 Martin Truex Jr +2500
116 Kurt Busch +3000
117 Ryan Newman +3000
118 Jeff Burton +3000
119 Jamie McMurray +3000
120 Joey Logano +3000
121 Michael Waltrip +4000
122 Juan Montoya +4000
123 Ricky Stenhouse +4000
124 Marcos Ambrose +4000
125 Paul Menard +4000
126 Trevor Bayne +4000
127 Aric Almirola +4000
128 Danica Patrick +4000
129 Field +1600
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