2013 Aaron’s 499 Free Picks: Betting on Underdogs for Big Payoffs

2013 Aaron’s 499 Free Picks: Betting on Underdogs for Big Payoffs While upsets can happen in the Cup Series each and every week, the chances of a surprise winner skyrocket at the four restrictor plate events. The good news for bettors is that one of those four races will occur this weekend when the series heads to Talladega Superspeedway for the Aaron’s 499. Over the years, Jimmy Spencer, Jamie McMurray, Michael Waltrip and Brian Vickers are among the drivers that were surprise winners at the track, and there have been countless other longshots that have finished near the front. With that in mind, bettors need to strongly consider betting on a few underdogs this weekend in an attempt to turn a small wager into a big payoff. On that note, here are a few drivers that could deliver an upset.

While I completely understand that veteran Jeff Burton has struggled the last two seasons, I was still surprised to see he was only getting 33/1 odds to win this weekend. After all, we are talking about a driver that ranks fifth in the series in points scored at the restrictor plate tracks dating back to the start of 2012. More importantly, he has been excellent at Talladega. He has three straight top-10s at the track, compiling a 7.3 average finish during the stretch. Not to mention the fact that Burton finished second at Talladega in the fall of 2011 and second at Daytona last July. Plain and simple, the veteran knows how to work the draft and knows how to get to the front at crunch time. His overall numbers may have declined sharply, but Burton has outperformed a number of drivers getting better odds to win this weekend when it comes to the superspeedways. He is an absolute steal for bettors.

Although he spends more of his time announcing than he does driving these days, Michael Waltrip can still make some noise on the rare occasions when he does climb behind the wheel, especially at the restrictor plate tracks. Keep in mind that all four of his Cup victories have come at superspeedways, including one at Talladega. Granted, it has been a while since he has been to Victory Lane, but he has finished in the top 10 at Talladega as recently as 2011. Not to mention the fact that he was making a pass for the lead at the track last fall when Tony Stewart drove across has bumped and triggered a multi-car wreck. The bottom line is that Waltrip is one of the most accomplished plate drivers in the field this weekend, and while he may dominate like he did in his prime, his skills haven’t diminished that much either. He is a 50/1 longshot to win Sunday, and bettors won’t find a more proven plate driver getting longer odds.

When David Ragan lost his ride with Roush Fenway Racing and signed with Front Row Motorsports in 2012, his days of being a consistently competitive driver ended. However, his days of challenging for wins at the superspeedways are far from over. In his first start at Talladega with his new team last spring, Ragan finished seventh. He followed that up with a fourth-place effort in the fall. Overall, Ragan’s 16.0 average finish at Talladega ranks third in the series among active drivers, and he has finished seventh or better five times at the track. His 50/1 odds to win this weekend have everything to do with the fledgling team he drives for and nothing to do with his plate racing skills. At his current 50/1 odds, Ragan is more than capable of turning a small bet into a big payout.

Phoenix Racing has been having success with it driver-by-committee approach this year, and as the team turns to Regan Smith this weekend, bettors may want to do the same with the 66/1 longshot. After all, Smith finished fifth at Talladega last fall, and he opened 2013 with a seventh-place effort at Daytona for Phoenix Racing. Not to mention the fact that he actually crossed the finish line first at Talladega in 2008 before a controversial ruling penalized him for an illegal pass and gave the victory to Tony Stewart instead. Smith has proven he can finish near the front at the superspeedways regardless of what car he is driving and what team he is driving for. With a small wager on Smith this weekend, bettors could get a sizeable reward for a minimal risk.

He is only making a few Cup Series starts in 2013, but Elliott Sadler will be in the field at Talladega this weekend, and bettors may want to take advantage of the 66/1 longshot while they have the chance. After all, he was one of the most underrated superspeedway drivers in the Cup Series for years, and he has continued the trend since moving to the Nationwide Series, finishing in the top 10 in all four restrictor plate races in 2012. Meanwhile, Sadler had three top-15s in his four most recent Cup starts at Talladega, including a pair of top-10s. He will also be driving for Joe Gibbs Racing this weekend so the equipment he has to work with will be top notch. Sadler is definitely a wild card in this weekend’s race, but bettors have to like the idea of backing a veteran driver with a history of success at Talladega that also brings a hefty potential payout to the table.

Be sure to check the NSAwins.com Betting Daily Blog all week for updated 2013 Aaron’s 499 odds, free tips, free picks, predictions and articles from NASCAR expert tipster Brian Polking. NSAwins.com is your home for 2013 Aaron’s 499 Betting Odds and Handicapping coverage!

Odds to win the 2013 Aaron’s 499
101 Dale Earnhardt Jr +1200
102 Matt Kenseth +1200
103 Kevin Harvick +1200
104 Kyle Busch +1200
105 Jimmie Johnson +1200
106 Clint Bowyer +1200
107 Tony Stewart +1200
108 Jeff Gordon +1200
109 Brad Keselowski +1200
110 Kasey Kahne +1400
111 Carl Edwards +1600
112 Greg Biffle +1600
113 Denny Hamlin +2000
114 Brian Vickers
115 Martin Truex Jr +2500
116 Kurt Busch +3000
117 Ryan Newman +3000
118 Jeff Burton +3000
119 Jamie McMurray +3000
120 Joey Logano +3000
121 Michael Waltrip +4000
122 Juan Montoya +4000
123 Ricky Stenhouse +4000
124 Marcos Ambrose +4000
125 Paul Menard +4000
126 Trevor Bayne +4000
127 Aric Almirola +4000
128 Danica Patrick +4000
129 Field +1600

Check the latest NASCAR Odds and Betting Lines from BOVADA below: