2013 AAA Texas 500 Odds, Free Picks and Predictions: Jimmie Johnson the Vegas Favorite: The Cup Series heads back to Texas Motor Speedway this weekend, and the 1.5-mile oval is famous for being one of the fastest tracks on the schedule with average speeds that exceed 190 mph and top speeds that routinely top 200 mph. Needless to say, the action on the track can get pretty intense as drivers start battling side by side at such high speeds, especially with just three races remaining in the season and the championship still very much up for grabs.
Last year, title contenders Jimmie Johnson and Brad Keselowski had an epic battle for the win in the closing laps. Johnson had the dominant car most of the afternoon, leading a race-high 168 laps. However, Keselowski used pit strategy to get out front and was able to hold of Johnson with a series of aggressive blocks until a late caution set up one more restart. Johnson muscled his way back in front of Keselowski and was able to sneak away for the victory.
The Favorites
He is the defending winner of this weekend’s race, and Jimmie Johnson is no stranger to running near the front at Texas. His win last fall was his second at the 1.5-mile track, and in 20 starts, he has finished third or better eight times and has compiled a 9.1 average finish. Throw in the fact that he has a 3.0 average finish in his last three starts at the track, and Johnson is a safe bet to be fighting for the win this weekend.
Bettors will have a tough time finding a more reliable option this weekend than Matt Kenseth. After all, his 6.8 average finish in the last 20 races at Texas is by far the best in the series. He has actually been even better recently, posting a 4.7 average finish in the last six races at the track. Kenseth is a two-time winner at Texas, and considering he has twice as many wins at 1.5-mile tracks this year as any other driver, he could certainly add to his win total in the Lone Star State this weekend.
The Dark Horses
Although he runs hot and cold at Texas, Kyle Busch has been dialed in at the track lately. In fact, he is going for a season sweep after winning at the 1.5-mile oval. The victory followed up a third-place run at Texas last fall, and in the last three races at the track, he has a 5.0 average finish. Busch actually has two wins at 1.5-mile tracks this season so there is a good chance one of his dominating performances could be on tap.
In the last 10 races at Texas, no driver has been better than Greg Biffle. He has finished in the top 10 in all 10 races during the stretch, posting a series-leading 5.5 average finish. More importantly, he has seven top-five finishes during the stretch, including five in his last six starts at the track. Biffle is a two-time winner at Texas for his career, and he has been knocking on the door of another victory for a while now.
His overall record at Texas has been inconsistent, but there is no denying Carl Edwards’ ability to get to victory lane at the track. In fact, his three wins at Texas are the most of any driver. Edwards has also finished third or better in three of his last five starts at the track, and he has already proven he can seal the deal when he has a strong car.
Sleeper Special
It appears a flip has switched for Martin Truex Jr. at Texas because he has been stellar at the track the past couple of years. He has posted a 7.3 average finish in his last four starts at Texas, logging three finishes of eighth or better. Truex also finished a career-best second a Texas earlier this year so a breakout performance could be on tap this weekend.
Big Name to Avoid
Although Kevin Harvick has been rock solid at Texas, he doesn’t usually run at the front of the field. In fact, he has never won at the track and has just four top-five finishes in 21 career starts. Harvick has actually gone seven straight starts at Texas without a top-five finish, and he has finished better than ninth in his last four starts at the track. Expect Harvick to land somewhere in or around the top 10 this weekend, but don’t expect him to end up in victory lane.
Be sure to check the NSAwins.com Betting Daily Blog all week for updated 2013 AAA Texas 500 odds, free tips, free picks, predictions and articles from NASCAR expert tipster Brian Polking. NSAwins.com is your home for 2013 AAA Texas 500 Betting Odds and Handicapping coverage!
Driver Odds to win the 2013 AAA Texas 500
Jimmie Johnson 7/2
Matt Kenseth 4/1
Kyle Busch 5/1
Jeff Gordon 8/1
Kasey Kahne 8/1
Brad Keselowski 12/1
Kevin Harvick 12/1
Clint Bowyer 18/1
Carl Edwards 20/1
Joey Logano 20/1
Greg Biffle 20/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr 20/1
Denny Hamlin 20/1
Kurt Busch 20/1
Martin Truex Jr 20/1
Ryan Newman 35/1
Jamie McMurray 60/1
Juan Montoya 75/1
Aric Almirola 100/1
Bobby Labonte 100/1
Danica Patrick 100/1
Kyle Larson 100/1
Trevor Bayne 100/1
Marcos Ambrose 100/1
Elliott Sadler 100/1
Ricky Stenhouse 100/1
Jeff Burton 100/1
Mark Martin 100/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 100/1
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