2013 AAA Texas 500 Free Picks: Betting on Underdogs for Big Payoffs : Texas Motor Speedway is a fast 1.5-mile oval that doesn’t play favorites. Yes, some of the big names in NASCAR have had a lot of success at the track, and Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth and Carl Edwards have all been to victory lane. However, veterans like Jeff Burton and Jeff Gordon have also tamed Texas, and before they retired, Dale Jarrett and Terry Labonte also won at the track later in their careers. Not to mention the fact that there have been some major upsets, including Elliott Sadler’s surprise win in 2004. With that in mind, bettors looking to hit it big this weekend in the Lone Star State have plenty of options to turn to when trying to pick a winner, and here is a closer look at some of the underdogs that are definitely worth considering.
While he isn’t really a major longshot at his current 18/1 odds, Greg Biffle could still be a steal for bettors this weekend. After all, he is currently getting the eighth-best odds to win, but in the last 10 races at Texas, no driver has been better than Biffle. His 5.5 average finish at the track during the stretch is the best in the series, and in addition to finishing in the top 10 in all 10 starts in the span, he has seven top-five finishes, including five in his last six starts at the track. Biffle won at Texas as recently as last year, and he is a two-time winner at the track overall. The bottom line is that there are a lot of drivers being favored ahead of Biffle that can’t come close to matching his success at Texas.
At his current 20/1 odds to win this weekend, Martin Truex Jr. finds himself outside of the top-10 betting favorites this weekend. However, he has found himself inside the top 10 a lot at Texas Motor Speedway recently. In fact, he has posted a 7.3 average finish in the last four races at the track, finishing eighth or better three times during the stretch. More importantly, Truex finished a career-best second at Texas earlier this year. From a betting standpoint, 20/1 odds are fairly generous for a driver that nearly won at this track just a few months ago.
Although there is no doubt that Mark Martin hasn’t been running well enough to be considered among the favorites at any track, his 100/1 odds to win this weekend are a bit shocking. After all, the veteran has enjoyed plenty of success at Texas in recent years, logging seven top-15s in his last 10 starts. More importantly, Martin has finished sixth or better in half of his starts during the stretch, finishing third at the track as recently as last year. His smooth style is actually a great fit for the fast, slick surface at Texas, and there is a reason he keeps ending up near the front of the field at the end of races. History says he has a great shot at being within striking distance of the lead when all is said and done, making Martin a potential steal at his current odds.
Bettors look for a serious dark horse this weekend may want to consider Aric Almirola. He has only made five starts at Texas, but he has definitely been trending in the right direction recently. After a career-best 15th-place finish at the track last fall, Almirola logged a new career-best seventh-place finish in the spring race at Texas earlier this year. Sure, the sample size is small, but Almirola is clearly getting more comfortable at the track. Not to mention the fact that if he improves on his performance from the spring even a little that he will be right in the mix for a win. At his current 150/1 odds to win this weekend, bettors don’t have to invest much to make the payoff worth their while.
Be sure to check the NSAwins.com Betting Daily Blog all week for updated 2013 AAA Texas 500 odds, free tips, free picks, predictions and articles from NASCAR expert tipster Brian Polking. NSAwins.com is your home for 2013 AAA Texas 500 Betting Odds and Handicapping coverage!
Driver Odds to win the 2013 AAA Texas 500
Jimmie Johnson 7/2
Matt Kenseth 4/1
Kyle Busch 5/1
Jeff Gordon 8/1
Kasey Kahne 8/1
Brad Keselowski 12/1
Kevin Harvick 12/1
Clint Bowyer 18/1
Carl Edwards 20/1
Joey Logano 20/1
Greg Biffle 20/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr 20/1
Denny Hamlin 20/1
Kurt Busch 20/1
Martin Truex Jr 20/1
Ryan Newman 35/1
Jamie McMurray 60/1
Juan Montoya 75/1
Aric Almirola 100/1
Bobby Labonte 100/1
Danica Patrick 100/1
Kyle Larson 100/1
Trevor Bayne 100/1
Marcos Ambrose 100/1
Elliott Sadler 100/1
Ricky Stenhouse 100/1
Jeff Burton 100/1
Mark Martin 100/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 100/1
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