2013 AAA 400 Odds, Free Picks and Predictions: Jimmie Johnson the Vegas Favorite: The Cup Series heads back to Dover International Speedway this weekend for the third race of the Chase for the Sprint Cup. The 1.0-mile oval is famous for its concrete surface and notorious for its narrow layout both on the apron of the track and on pit road. Not to mention the fact that Dover has been nicknamed the “Monster Mile” thanks to its ability to chew up racecars. Last fall, Kyle Busch appeared to have conquered Dover but a long green flag run to end the race brought fuel mileage into play. Busch led 302 of the 400 laps, but while he had to stop for a splash of gas, a handful of drivers were able to stretch their fuel to the finish, including eventual winner Brad Keselowski. Meanwhile, Busch settled for seventh.
2013 AAA 400 Odds, Free Picks and Predictions
The Favorites
Since joining the Cup Series, Jimmie Johnson has made Dover his personal playground. He is a seven-time winner at the track overall, and in the last 10 races, he has a series-high four wins and a series-leading 5.7 average finish. During the stretch, Johnson has finished in the top-five on seven occasions, and earlier this year, he was cruising to a win before a controversial penalty on the final restart cost him the victory. A dominant performance could be on tap.
He has opened the playoffs with wins in each of the first two races, and Matt Kenseth could make it 3-for-3 this weekend. After all, he is a two-time winner at Dover, and in his last 11 starts at the track, he has eight top-five finishes. Kenseth’s seven wins in 2013 are three more than any other driver in the series, and don’t be surprised if he adds to that total at a Dover track that has always been one of his best.
With 11 finishes of seventh or better in 18 starts at Dover, Kyle Busch clearly knows how to get around the concrete oval. He is also a two-time winner at the track, and he has been especially dialed in the past few years. Busch has finished seventh or better in six of his last seven starts at Dover, and earlier this year, he led the most laps and finished fourth. He should be one of the main contenders again Sunday.
The Dark Horses
Although he only has one win at Dover, Carl Edwards has been the most consistent driver at the track. His 8.6 average finish is the best among active drivers, and in 18 starts, he has finished outside the top 15 only three times. More importantly, Edwards has finished in the top 10 on 12 occasions, including six finishes of third or better. He is basically a lock to be in the hunt this weekend.
Defending Cup Series champ Brad Keselowski won’t be able to defend his title, but he will have a chance to defend his victory at Dover from last fall. The victory was his first at the track, but after following up the win with a top-five effort earlier this year, Keselowski appears to one of the rising stars at Dover. Don’t be surprised if he makes it back-to-back wins in the fall race at the track this weekend.
While his last victory at Dover came back in 2001, Jeff Gordon has been close to recapturing his winning form at the track recently. He finished second at Dover last fall, and earlier this year, he finished third in the June event. Gordon is the only driver in the series with top-three finishes in each of the last two Dover races so a win isn’t out of the question Sunday.
Sleeper Special
Veteran Mark Martin has always run well at Dover, and he has remained a legitimate contender even in recent years. In fact, his 9.0 average finish in the last 10 races at the track is the third best in the series. During the stretch, he has four finishes of fourth or better, including a third-place run last fall. This weekend, Martin will be driving for the No. 14 team that won at Dover with the now-injured Tony Stewart in June, and he might just be able to complete a season sweep for the team.
Big Name to Avoid
He is mired in a terrible slump anyway, and now, Denny Hamlin will have to try to handle a Dover track that has always given him fits. He has a 20.5 average finish in 15 career starts, and he has only finished in the top 10 on five occasions. More concerning is the fact that Hamlin has finished outside the top 15 in nine starts at Dover and has finished outside the top 30 in five of his starts.
Be sure to check the NSAwins.com Betting Daily Blog all week for updated 2013 AAA 400 odds, free tips, free picks, predictions and articles from NASCAR expert tipster Brian Polking. NSAwins.com is your home for 2013 AAA 400 Betting Odds and Handicapping coverage!
Driver Odds to win the 2013 AAA 400
Jimmie Johnson 7/2
Matt Kenseth 9/2
Kyle Busch 9/2
Kasey Kahne 7/1
Brad Keselowski 12/1
Jeff Gordon 12/1
Carl Edwards 15/1
Martin Truex Jr 18/1
Kurt Busch 18/1
Clint Bowyer 18/1
Kevin Harvick 18/1
Denny Hamlin 20/1
Brian Vickers 25/1
Greg Biffle 25/1
Joey Logano 25/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr 25/1
Ryan Newman 50/1
Jamie McMurray 60/1
Juan Montoya 75/1
Mark Martin 75/1
Jeff Burton 75/1
Danica Patrick 100/1
Marcos Ambrose 100/1
Aric Almirola 100/1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr 100/1
Paul Menard 100/1
AJ Allmendinger 100/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 100/1
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