2012 Sprint Cup Champion Bargains and Busts – Beating the Sprint Cup Championship Odds

Beating the Vegas Odds – 2012 Sprint Cup Champion Bargains and Busts – NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship Betting: At the start of the 2011 Sprint Cup season, Tony Stewart was widely considered a driver that would win a few races and make the Chase, but he wasn’t on the short list of title contenders. Five wins in the playoffs changed all that, and “Smoke” went from an afterthought at the beginning of the Chase to a three-time champ when the checkered flag flew at Homestead-Miami Speedway. After five years of Jimmie Johnson’s dominance, Stewart’s title-winning performance should give hope to bettors that unexpected champions are possible. In fact, they should be more likely than ever considering the setup of the Chase. With that in mind, it’s time to take a look at a couple of drivers being underestimated by the oddsmakers and a couple being overhyped.

Topping the last of bargains is Matt Kenseth. He is getting 12/1 odds to win the 2012 Sprint Cup, putting him ninth on the list of title favorites. Keep in mind that he is a former champ, and last year, he won three times and finished fourth in the final standings. Take away an unexpected feud with Brian Vickers that led to a pair of wrecks during the playoffs, and Kenseth could have been in the mix for the championship last season. He is one of the smoothest drivers in the series, and his ability to take care of equipment limits penalties, cut tires and blown motors that cripple a driver’s chances of winning the Chase. His Roush Fenway Racing team is running as well as it has in several seasons, and Kenseth should be a top-five threat to win it all, instead of barely sitting inside the top 10.

Kenseth isn’t the only Roush Fenway Racing driver to land in the bargain bin. His teammate Greg Biffle could be a steal at his 25/1 odds. Granted, he had a terrible year in 2011, but bad luck played a huge factor in his performance. From 2008 to 2010, he finished seventh or better in the final standings every year. More importantly, he is one of the top drivers at 1.5-mile ovals, and there are five tracks with that layout during the 10-race playoff schedule. Biffle was primed to bounce back in 2012 based on his luck alone, but with Jack Roush deciding to downsize his team to just three cars, Biffle could be in position for a career year. Fewer cars means more resources for the drivers still with the team, and since Biffle has been a top-10 driver almost every year of his career, he could easily make a jump into the top five. He is far from the afterthought that his odds might suggest.

On the opposite end of the spectrum is Kyle Busch. With 7/1 odds to win the title, Busch is among the favorites to hoist the 2012 Sprint Cup. However, he has a terrible track record in the Chase. Busch has just a single win during the playoffs, and it came back in his rookie year. He has never won a race when he was one of the drivers eligible for the title. Busch’s talent behind the wheel is undeniable, and even last year, he led the series in driver rating and laps led. That being said, Busch struggles when it matters most. He can win all the races and lead all the laps he wants during the regular season, but until he delivers in the Chase, he isn’t going to win the title.

Kyle’s older brother Kurt Busch has actually won a title in the past, winning the inaugural Chase back in 2004. He has 30/1 odds to win another title this season, and even those odds are too generous. Busch’s temper and bad behavior off the track forced Penske Racing to part ways with the driver following the 2011 season. He landed with Phoenix Racing – a single-car operation with limited sponsorship and limited resources. Going from a championship-caliber organization to Phoenix Racing is going to take a huge toll on Busch’s productivity. He will be lucky to finish in the top five more than a couple of times, and making the Chase would be a borderline miracle. Busch is going to get a major reality check this season, and he can basically be written off as a championship threat in 2012.

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