2012 Pennsylvania 400 Picks: Betting on Underdogs for Big Payoffs

2012 Pennsylvania 400 Expert Picks – Betting on Underdogs for Big Payoffs: The last time the series visited Pocono Raceway, Joey Logano delivered a surprising performance, winning his first Cup race since 2009. Of course, the track has been known for producing some unexpected winners. Heck, Brad Keselowski is the defending winner of this weekend’s race, and he won the 2011 event while driving with a broken ankle. With track position and fuel mileage often deciding the outcomes of races Pocono, these two upsets weren’t the first and won’t be the last. Needless to say, bettors need to have their eyes on a big payday this weekend. Here are a few drivers that could be poised to deliver an upset.

It has been a forgettable year for Juan Pablo Montoya, but amid his struggles, he came out of nowhere to win the pole for Sunday’s race at Pocono. He is still a 40/1 longshot to win the race, but starting up front should seriously help his chance of pulling off the upset. After all Joey Logano won the June event at the track from the pole earlier this year, and 14 straight races at Pocono have been won by drivers starting inside the top 20. More importantly, Montoya has a history of success at the track. He has finished eighth or better in four of his last seven starts at Pocono, including a second-place run in 2009. All it takes to win a race is one strong car at one track, and it appears Montoya has a setup that will allow him to contend. With the potential for a decent payout, bettors may want to take a chance on the guy that will lead the field to the green Sunday.

He has only been back in the Cup Series a couple of weeks, but Sam Hornish Jr. could make an early splash. Although he struggled in his first stint in the series, he always had a feel for the flat corners at Pocono Raceway. Hornish finished 11th or better four times in his last five starts at the track, finishing as high as fourth. Pocono was by far his best track on the schedule, and he returns to the tricky triangle this weekend a much better and more experienced stock car driver. He also returns to the track behind the wheel of the same Penske Racing car that Kurt Busch finished second and third with in two starts at Pocono last season. As well as Hornish ran at Pocono in 2009 and 2010, he could be even better this weekend. He is a 65/1 longshot to win this weekend, and at those odds, he could be a steal.

Bettors looking for the biggest bargain of the weekend may want to consider Paul Menard. Despite a lot of success at Pocono in recent years, he is only getting 70/1 odds to win Sunday. Menard has finished in the top 15 in his last four starts at the track, including back-to-back top-10 finishes. In fact, he finished a career-best ninth at Pocono earlier this year. In that race, he started third, which just so happens to be where he qualified for this weekend’s return trip to the track. Menard has not only been consistent at Pocono, but he has been steadily improving. Throw in the fact that he is starting near the front at a place where track position has always been crucial, and he seems like a prime candidate to pull an upset. With a sizeable payout waiting if he does pull it off, bettors may want to gamble on Menard this weekend.

Check out the latest 2012 Pennsylvania 400 odds and predictions from NSAwins.com’s NASCAR handicapping expert Brian Polking!