2012 Indianapolis 500 Predictions – Why Rookie Josef Newgarden is Worth the Gamble: The name Josef Newgarden doesn’t exactly ring a lot of bells in the world open-wheel racing, especially at a track as famous as Indianapolis Motor Speedway. However, the 21-year-old rookie drivers could definitely make a name for himself with a strong showing in Sunday’s Indianapolis 500. In fact, a strong showing may be just the beginning for Newgarden. There have been several signs in the days leading up to the race that point to a really, really good run for the rookie. At 20/1 odds, bettors may just want to take a gamble that his run ends with a life-changing trip to Victory Lane.
Looking at the 2012 point standings, it is easy to understand why Newgarden didn’t get much respect from the oddsmakers. He is 22nd in points entering Sunday’s race and has yet to collect a top-10 finish. However, the early portion of the IndyCar Series schedule is filled with road courses, and clearly, they are not Newgarden’s forte. Indianapolis, on the other hand, is a massive, 2.5-mile oval track that is all about speed, and the more traditional type of track should favor Newgarden. After all, he won the Firestone Indy Lights Series championship last season, winning three of the six oval track races in the process. Granted, Indianapolis wasn’t one of the tracks he won at, but the rookie is clearly most comfortable and at his best at oval tracks.
While his background and past success at oval tracks is encouraging, it is Newgarden’s practice speeds that should really grab the attention of bettors. He paced the field during a session last Wednesday and followed it up by ranking second the following afternoon. Newgarden went on to qualify seventh for the Indianapolis 500 this past weekend, making him the only non-Chevrolet starting in the top 10. His starting spot puts him close enough to the front that he won’t have to overuse his equipment or his fuel to keep touch with the leaders, and at the same time, he is far enough back that he won’t have to worry about setting the pace as he works out any early nervousness that is bound to come with making his first Indy 500 starts. Newgarden’s No. 67 Honda has been fast since it unloaded at Indy, and he should have no problem being competitive from the drop of the green Sunday.
Naysayers will argue that Newgarden’s chances of winning as a rookie are slim because the pressure of being on such a big stage without any prior experience is too much to overcome. However, eight drivers have won the Indianapolis 500 as rookies, and while that isn’t a lot, rookie winners aren’t unheard of either. In fact, rookies have gone to Victory Lane twice since 2000, with Juan Pablo Montoya and Helio Castroneves accomplishing the feat in back-to-back years. Not to mention that J.R. Hildebrand came within one corner of becoming the ninth rookie to win the race just last season. Needless to say, discounting Newgarden simply because he is a rookie is a big mistake.
With the exception of experience, Newgarden has everything a driver needs to win the Indianapolis 500. His championship and oval track wins in the Indy Lights Series last season are a prime example his talent and potential, and his practice times last week at Indianapolis speak for themselves. He secured a strong starting position during qualifying, and now, he finds himself with a very fast car within striking distance of the leaders. Yes, he still has to go 200 laps without making any mistakes, but with 20/1 odds, the potential for a sizeable payout makes Newgarden worth betting on this weekend.
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2012 Indianapolis 500 Odds – May 27th at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
Driver Odds to Win the 2012 Indy 500
Driver to win the Indy Indianapolis 500
701 Dario Franchitti +900
702 Scott Dixon +900
703 Helio Castroneves +500
704 Ryan Briscoe +300
705 Will Power +600
706 Marco Andretti +800
707 Tony Kanaan +1200
708 Ryan Hunter Reay +1200
709 James Hinchcliffe +800
710 JR Hildebrand +4000
711 Oriol Servia +8000
712 Alex Tagliani +5000
713 Graham Rahal +4000
714 Justin Wilson +10000
715 Rubens Barichello +5000
716 Ed Carpenter +8000
717 Takuma Sato +8000
718 Field +2000
Check the latest NASCAR Odds and Betting Lines and updated 2012 Indy 500 Odds from BOVADA below:
