2012 GEICO 400 Picks: Betting on Underdogs for Big Payoffs

2012 GEICO 400 Expert Picks – Betting on Underdogs for Big Payoffs: The 2012 Chase for the Sprint Cup begins this weekend at Chicagoland Speedway, and not surprisingly, title favorites like Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart and Matt Kenseth are also the oddsmakers’ favorites to get to Victory Lane this weekend. This trend can actually benefit bettors, as plenty of quality drivers that don’t have the same history of success in the playoffs can actually see their odds fall to the point to where they become potential steals. That is the case with all three Michael Waltrip Racing drivers this weekend, and despite putting two of its three cars in the Chase, the organization appears to be getting overlooked by the oddsmakers. On that note, here is a strong case for bettors to take a chance on all three MWR drivers at Chicagoland.

With an 18.2 average finish and zero top-five finishes in six starts at Chicagoland, Martin Truex Jr. doesn’t seem like the best bet to get to Victory Lane this weekend. However, there are more than a few reasons that bettors may want to take a chance on the 20/1 longshot Sunday. For starters, he has really only had one bad run at the track, finishing 18th or better in five of his six starts. More importantly, Truex is having by far the best year of his career. He has already tied his career high with 14 top-10s, and his 11.3 average finish is nearly five spots better than his previous best set back in 2007. Not to mention that he has come very close to winning two races at 1.5-mile tracks already in 2012. He led the most laps at Kansas before finishing second, and he was on his way to a win at Atlanta a few weeks ago before a late caution and slow pit stop dropped him to third. It seems like only a matter of time before he breaks through at a 1.5-mile track, and it could easily be this weekend in the Chase opener.

Whether it is oddsmakers, commentators or fantasy NASCAR enthusiasts, Clint Bowyer is always being underrated by somebody. That is the case once again this weekend, as he opens with just 22/1 odds to win at Chicagoland Sunday. He has five top-10s in six starts at the track, and his 10.2 average finish is the fifth best among active drivers. His two best finishes at Chicagoland have come in his last two starts when he finished fourth in 2010 and seventh last year. Not to mention that prior to start of this season, four of Bowyer’s five career wins have come in the Chase. With two regular season wins under his belt already in 2012, the best could still be to come for one of the steadiest drivers in the garage. By the way, Bowyer has quietly had the most consistent year of his career so far, and his 11.5 average finish is more than two spots better than his previous best.

Veteran Mark Martin continues to pile up solid numbers even as a part-time driver this season, and he could make some noise this weekend at Chicagoland and for the rest of the Chase. In 11 starts at the track, he has cracked the top 15 on eight occasions, including in each of the last three races. More importantly, he won at Chicagolad in 2009 and finished in the top 10 just last season. The fact that Martin has always run well at the track is encouraging, and the fact that he won at Chicagoland just three races ago makes him a very tempting pick, especially at his current 23/1 odds. While Chasers do tend to dominate Victory Lane during the playoffs, there are usually one or two races where non-Chasers break through. Martin has enough experience and enough past success at Chicagoland to do just that this weekend.

Check out the latest 2012 GEICO 400 odds and predictions from NSAwins.com’s NASCAR handicapping expert Brian Polking!