2012 FedEx 400 Expert Picks: Betting on Underdogs for Big Payoffs

2012 FedEx 400 Expert Picks: Betting on Underdogs for Big Payoffs: Dover International Speedway hasn’t exactly been a hot bed for upsets over the past decade. In the 20 races during the stretch, only 10 different drivers have gone to Victory Lane. During the same stretch, six of the winners have gone on to win multiple races. That being said, veterans Mark Martin and Jeff Burton did notch surprise wins during the same span, Martin Truex Jr. scored his first and still only Cup Series win, and Kurt Busch won his first race at the track just last fall. Yes, a handful of drivers have been dominant, but an underdog has slipped through every now and then. Here are a few drivers that could join the list of upset winners in this weekend’s FedEx 400.

Yes, Jeff Burton is past his prime and mostly an afterthought at this stage of his career. However, his 65/1 odds to win this weekend are borderline insulting. He has been the picture of consistency at Dover, finishing worse than 16th just once in his last 20 starts at the track. During the stretch, his 9.7 average finish is the third best in the series. Burton won at Dover as recently as 2006, and he finished second in both races at the track just two seasons ago. Even during his miserable 2011 campaign, he managed a pair of 11th-place finishes at Dover. Burton’s patient, smooth driving style still works at a rhythm track like Dover, where consistent lap times often trump aggressive driving. Burton has remained relevant at Dover even as he has declined the past few seasons, and at his current, long odds, he is worth a look from bettors.

Road course ace Marcos Ambrose doesn’t dominate at many oval tracks, but Dover is one of the few exceptions. Last spring, he ran consistently in the top five at the track, eventually finishing a career-best third. Ambrose followed it up with another top-10 run in the fall event at the track. Notching top-10 finishes in both events in 2011 puts him on a list with Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick and Clint Bowyer. Granted, those drivers are all more accomplished in their careers than Ambrose, but he went head to head with big names at the “Monster Mile” last season and was competitive in both events and in position to win the spring race. After his performance at the track last season, he could be a steal at his current 45/1 odds.

At 30/1 odds to win, it would be easy to confuse Ryan Newman with a driver that has struggled at Dover in his career. However, he is actually a three-time winner at the track, and his 11.5 average finish is fifth best among active drivers. Yes, he finished outside the top 20 in both races last year, but he had a six-race streak of top-15 finishes at Dover heading into the 2011 season. One bad year doesn’t mean that Newman has suddenly lost the handle at Dover. His career numbers tell a much different story, and with three trips to Victory Lane already under his belt at the track, why not take advantage of his surprisingly long odds. Keep in mind that his three victories are more than the likes of heavy favorites Matt Kenseth, Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards.

Check out the latest 2012 FedEx 400 odds and predictions from NSAwins.com’s NASCAR handicapping expert Brian Polking!