2012 Federated Auto Parts 400 Picks: Betting on Underdogs for Big Payoffs

2012 Federated Auto Parts 400 Expert Picks – Betting on Underdogs for Big Payoffs: While all the focus will be on the six drivers fighting for a spot in the Chase during this weekend’s regular season finale at Richmond, bettors should be thinking big. There are basically 16 drivers that are going to be taking risks this weekend. Some of those drivers are locked into the playoffs so they can afford to gamble for a win, and others have to find a way to win just to make the playoffs. In either case, there are going to be some interesting strategies at work at Richmond Saturday night. Yes, there is a chance that one of these drivers will hit on the perfect strategy and win the race. However, there is an equally likely possibility that the strategies will backfire, leaving the door open for an upset. With that in mind, here is a look at a few of the longshots that could get to Victory Lane this weekend.

In his first four starts at Richmond, Ryan Newman picked up a win and a pair of second-place finishes. He hasn’t been back to Victory Lane since, but he hasn’t been running poorly at the track either. In fact, he has cracked the top 15 in six of his last seven starts at Richmond, and for his career, he has 16 top-15 finishes in 21 starts. The short track has always been kind to Newman, and while he hasn’t won a ton of races at RIR, he does always seem to be near the front. More importantly, he is desperate for a win this weekend to make the Chase. The added motivation could be just what he needs to turn one of his solid runs into a spectacular one. At 40/1 odds, Newman could deliver a sizeable return on investment for bettors.

While Juan Pablo Montoya has had his fair share of poor performances and embarrassing moments at oval tracks, his aggressive style had actually led to some solid results at the short tracks. Richmond is no exception, and in his last five starts at the track, he has finished in the top 15 four times. During the stretch, he has finished seventh or better twice. Montoya is a 66/1 longshot to win this weekend, and given his tendency to wreck himself and others, he definitely carries plenty of risk. Still, he has shown a history of consistency at Richmond that he has shown at very few other tracks on the schedule. Montoya has the right attitude for short track racing, and he isn’t afraid to use his bumper if need be. Given his long odds, this is one of the few times that the potential reward outweighs the risks that come with Montoya.

With three top-15s in his last four starts, Sam Hornish Jr. is officially enjoying the best stretch of his Cup Series career. The former IndyCar champ has been a new man since returning to NASCAR’s top level, and the good times could continue to roll this weekend at Richmond. In his six starts at the track in his first stint in a Cup car, Hornish managed a pair of top-eight finishes. If he could crack the top 10 at Richmond when he was at his worst, the potential for what he could do at the track now that he is a much-improved driver is intriguing. At his 75/1 odds to win, Hornish could end up being a steal this weekend.

Check out the latest 2012 Federated Auto Parts 400 odds and predictions from NSAwins.com’s NASCAR handicapping expert Brian Polking!