2012 Advocare 500 Picks: Betting on Underdogs for Big Payoffs

2012 Advocare 500 Expert Picks – Betting on Underdogs for Big Payoffs: Atlanta Motor Speedway is a fast, 1.5-mile track known for its three-wide racing and exciting finishes. It has also been known for producing first-time winners. Jerry Nadeau, Kevin Harvick and Carl Edwards are just a few of the drivers that have made AMS the site of their first-career wins in recent years. Granted, some big names of the sport have dominated at the track, as well, but upset winners have been known to break through. With that in mind, here is a look at three longshots that have a chance of pulling off a surprise win this weekend.

Based on his career numbers, the 66/1 that Marcos Ambrose is getting this weekend at Atlanta Motor Speedway would be appropriate. After all, he is at his best at road courses and has been inconsistent at the larger ovals. However, Ambrose has been anything but inconsistent lately. He has four straight top 10s entering this weekend’s race, including three straight top-five finishes. In fact, Ambrose scored more points than any other driver in the month of August. You read that correctly. Ambrose was the best driver in the Cup Series last month. He actually ranks in the top 10 in points scored over the past 15 races, logging all eight if his top-10 finishes during the stretch. He has never been running better at any point in his career, and with a pair of top-11 finishes in his last three starts at Atlanta, Ambrose might just ride his wave of momentum to his first-career oval win. Bettors can’t pass on the driver that is running the best in the series with the potential payoff that is up for grabs.

When most NASCAR fans hear the name Juan Pablo Montoya, they think of him wrecking himself and other drivers. Heck, he is the guy that managed to run into a jet dryer that was attempting to dry the track at Daytona and set a section of the track on fire. Montoya is normally a loose cannon and totally unreliable at just about every track, but Atlanta Motor Speedway has been an exception. He has four straight top-15 finishes at the track and has finished in the top 10 three times during the stretch. Montoya has finished third on a pair of occasions at the track, and if he is going to win a race outside of the road courses, Atlanta is probably his best shot. He is definitely a major gamble for bettors, but at his current 75/1 odds, it is a gamble that might be worth taking.

Although his 80/1 odds to win would suggest otherwise, Paul Menard has actually been running well lately. He has strung together eight straight finishes of 17th or better and has finished in the top 15 seven times during the stretch. Granted, he has yet to finish in the top-five this season, but Atlanta is a track the suits his driving style. He has finished as high as fifth at AMS, and a majority of his best runs have come at 1.5-mile tracks like Atlanta. Menard has putting up consistent numbers at tracks where he has been known to struggle. Now that he gets to head to one of his better tracks, he could be primed to break out in a big way. With such long odds, Menard could end up being a quiet steal for bettors this weekend.

Check out the latest 2012 Finger Lakes 355 at The Glen odds and predictions from NSAwins.com’s NASCAR handicapping expert Brian Polking!