2012 AdvoCare 500 Odds, Free Picks and Predictions – AdvoCare 500 Favorites and Sleepers to Win at Phoenix International Raceway: Before the 2012 season comes to a close, the Cup Series has to make another trip to the desert. Phoenix International Raceway will host Sunday’s AdvoCare 500, and while a lot has changed since the series visited the track in March, Phoenix is still the flat, 1.0-mile oval that produces physical racing and tough passing conditions. Track position is crucial, and fuel mileage and tire strategy can often lead to unexpected winners.
Last fall, Tony Stewart dominated most of the race, leading 160 of the 312 laps. However, an adjustment in the second half of the race made his No. 14 Chevrolet too tight, opening the door for Kasey Kahne. Kahne would lead just 14 laps, but he was out front when it mattered. Meanwhile, Stewart settled for third, but he would go on to win the next weekend at Homestead to claim his third career series championship.
Earlier this year, Denny Hamlin finally broke through at Phoenix after several close calls. Several drivers actually spent significant time out front with Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch all leading more than 50 laps. Harvick would actually lead a race-high 88 laps, but Hamlin had the car to beat in the latter stages of the event, and he held off Harvick for the victory.
2012 AdvoCare 500 Odds, Predictions and Free Picks
The Favorites
Not only has he won the two races leading up to Phoenix, but Jimmie Johnson has been the best in the business at the 1.0-mile track. He has never finished outside the top 15 in 18 career starts, and his 5.3 average finish is by far the best in the series. More importantly, Johnson has finished in the top five in 11 of his last 12 starts at PIR, and he has four wins during the stretch.
He is going for the season sweep at Phoenix, and after getting the monkey of his back in March, Denny Hamlin could get back to Victory Lane this weekend. Overall, he has finished sixth or better in seven of his 14 starts at PIR, and that doesn’t even count the times when fuel mileage and tire issues cost him potential wins. Hamlin is one of the best flat track drivers in the series, and his win at Phoenix earlier this year won’t be his last at the track.
The Dark Horses
Although he has just one top-five finish at Phoenix in six career starts, Brad Keselowski is running too good to ignore. Since the Chase began, he has finished 11th or better in all eight races, picking up a pair of wins along the way. Just last weekend, Keselowski finished second at a Texas track where he had never even cracked the top 10 in eight previous starts. The guy is flat out on fire as he pursues a championship, and he is a threat to win regardless of the track.
Despite sitting second last in the Chase, Kevin Harvick could make a little noise this weekend at Phoenix. He is a two-time winner at the track, and he has finished sixth or better in three of his last four starts at the track. More importantly, he finished second at PIR in March and led the most laps. Harvick has a history of success at flat tracks, and even though he has been struggling in recent weeks, he could shake his slump in a big way this weekend.
Sleeper Special
With just five wins since the start of the 2005 season, Ryan Newman doesn’t exactly win a lot of races. However, his last two wins have come at flat tracks, including a win at Phoenix in 2010. Overall, Newman has four top-five finishes in his last five starts at PIR, and Jimmie Johnson is the only other driver with as many top-five finishes during the stretch. If there is a track on the schedule where Newman can pull off a surprise win, it is Phoenix.
Big Name to Avoid
Early in his career, Dale Earnhardt Jr. actually won back-to-back races at Phoenix. In recent years, his results have been a bit more modest. Junior has just one top-10 finish in his last seven starts at the track, and he has gone 14 starts without finishing in the top five. Yes, he has won multiple races at PIR, but he hasn’t shown any signs of returning to Victory Lane for almost a decade.
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2012 AdvoCare 500 Odds – November 11th.
Driver Odds to Win the 2012 AdvoCare 500
Jimmie Johnson 4/1
Brad Keselowski 5/1
Denny Hamlin 6/1
Kyle Busch 8/1
Kasey Kahne 8/1
Jeff Gordon 12/1
Tony Stewart 12/1
Clint Bowyer 12/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr 12/1
Mark Martin 15/1
Greg Biffle 20/1
Matt Kenseth 20/1
Martin Truex Jr 20/1
Kevin Harvick 20/1
Carl Edwards 25/1
Ryan Newman 50/1
Joey Logano 50/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Sam Hornish Jr 100/1
Jeff Burton 100/1
Marcos Ambrose 100/1
Kurt Busch 100/1
Aric Almirola 200/1
Bobby Labonte 300/1
Regan Smith 300/1
Juan Montoya 300/1
Jamie McMurray 300/1
Travis Kvapil 300/1
Danica Patrick 300/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 50/1
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