2012 AAA Texas 500 Odds, Free Picks and Predictions – AAA Texas 500 Favorites and Sleepers to Win at Texas Motor Speedway in Fort Worth, Texas: If you have never been to a NASCAR race, Texas Motor Speedway is a pretty darn good choice. The 1.5-mile oval is famous for its high speeds on the track and the unbelievable fan-friendly concerts and activities held throughout the weekend. Throw in the fact that the fall race at the track is also part of the Chase for the Sprint Cup, and the old saying that everything is bigger in Texas seems to have some merit.
Last fall, Tony Stewart channeled Babe Ruth and essentially called his shot. After winning the previous week at Martinsville, Stewart declared that championship leader Carl Edwards wouldn’t get a chance to sleep easy for the rest of the playoffs. Stewart backed up his words by leading a race-high 173 laps and winning at Texas in dominating fashion. True to his word, Stewart would go on to finish third and first in the final two races to claim the title.
Earlier this year, a three-car battle between Jimmie Johnson, Greg Biffle and Martin Truex Jr. was the story of the race. The trio combined to lead 315 of the 334 laps with Johnson leading a race-high 156. Truex was the first to bow out of the fight, slipping a bit in the later stages. From there, Biffle was able to overtake Johnson during the final run and hang on for the victory.
2012 AAA Texas 500 Odds, Predictions and Free Picks
The Favorites
No driver has been on a bigger roll at Texas lately than Matt Kenseth. He has finished in the top 10 in nine of his last 10 starts at the track and has compiled a series-leading 6.0 average finish during the stretch. More importantly, Kenseth has finished in the top five in his last four starts at the track, including a win in 2011. With two wins already under his belt in the Chase, he could easily add a third this weekend at a track that has been one of his best.
Fresh off a win at Martinsville that gave him the lead in standings, Jimmie Johnson will try to keep the momentum going at a Texas track where he has had plenty of great runs. In fact, he is one of only three active drivers that average a top-10 finish at Texas. Not to mention the fact that he is a former winner at the track and has finished second on five other occasions, including earlier this year.
The Dark Horses
After winning at Texas earlier this year, Greg Biffle will try for the season sweep at the 1.5-mile track this weekend. Based on his recent numbers, he just might get it. After a run of bad luck at the track, Biffle has reeled off eight straight top-10 finishes, including four straight top-five finishes. No other driver can boast an active streak of top-10 finishes as long as Biffle’s eight-race run. His victory in April might not be his last at Texas.
It has been a long, disappointing season for Carl Edwards, and after finishing second in the championship standings last season, he is still winless in 2012. That being said, Edwards has always run well at Texas, and he could make a little noise this weekend. After all, he is a three-time winner at the track, and he has finished in the top 10 in his last three starts at the track, including a second-place run last fall.
Sleeper Special
Call it a hunch, but Aric Almirola has been on the best run of his career the past few weeks. He finished 12th at Charlotte three races ago and was battling for the lead at Kansas when he spun out two weeks ago. Last weekend, at Martinsville, Almirola finished fourth. Something has clicked for the young driver, and he might just sneak up and steal a win this weekend at Texas.
Big Name to Avoid
Defending champion Tony Stewart will go down in history as one of the best in the business, but he simply doesn’t have the same magic this year that he had during last season’s memorable surge to the title. He is actually the defending winner of this weekend’s race at Texas, but he has finished outside the top 10 in four of his last five races in the Chase with three finishes of 20th or worse. Stewart was the defending winner of last weekend’s race at Martinsville, but he was irrelevant all afternoon and finished 27th. He could be headed down a similar road this weekend.
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2012 AAA Texas 500 Odds – November 4th.
Driver Odds to Win the 2012 AAA Texas 500
101 Jimmie Johnson +450
102 Denny Hamlin +600
103 Brad Keselowski +600
104 Greg Biffle +700
105 Kyle Busch +800
106 Kasey Kahne +900
107 Matt Kenseth +1200
108 Clint Bowyer +1200
109 Jeff Gordon +1800
110 Dale Earnhardt Jr +1800
111 Carl Edwards +1500
112 Tony Stewart +2000
113 Martin Truex Jr +1200
114 Mark Martin +2500
115 Kevin Harvick +4000
116 Field +1800
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