2011 Samsung Mobile 500 Vegas Odds and Predictions – Favorites and Drivers to Bet On: There is an old saying that everything is bigger in Texas, and when it comes to the speeds at Texas Motor Speedway, the saying definitely holds true. With average lap times that can crack 190 mph, and top speeds that crack 200 mph, the 1.5-mile track is the ultimate mix of action and excitement. Violent wrecks and side-by-side racing are a common sight, and the winner at Texas is often the last man standing.
Last year’s April event was a perfect example of how hard the track can be on cars. Tony Stewart and Jeff Gordon combined to lead 208 of the 317 laps, but both were involved in a nine-car pileup late in the race that eliminated the top contenders. Denny Hamlin took advantage and held off Jimmie Johnson to win his first career race at Texas.
In the fall event, Hamlin was again able to steal a win away. Greg Biffle led 224 of the 334 laps, but Hamlin used a two-tire stop to take the lead. Matt Kenseth nearly stole the win away with some pit strategy of his own, but Hamlin powered by the No. 17 on the final restart to complete the season sweep.
The Favorites
As the introduction suggests, Denny Hamlin is pretty good at Texas Motor Speedway. His 8.8 average finish at the track is the best among active drivers, and he has finished 12th or better in nine of his 11 starts. His season sweep last season was part of a three-race streak of finishes of second or better.
Considering he has won the last two races in 2011, Kevin Harvick should draw a lot of attention this weekend. He has been rolling at Texas as well, finishing seventh or better in his last three starts. He has finished 11th or better in six of his last seven starts at the track, and there is a good chance his first win in the Lone Star State could be in the works.
He has been solid but unspectacular in 2011, but Matt Kenseth could breakout this weekend at Texas. Not only is he a former winner at the track, but he has finished 12th or better in 10 of his last 11 starts. Kenseth has seven top-five finishes during the stretch, including four second-place efforts.
The Dark Horses
His last win at Texas came in 1998, but Mark Martin has been on the doorstep of a return trip to Victory Lane in recent years. He has finished 12th or better in his last six starts at the track, including four straight finishes of sixth or better. Last fall, Martin finished third, and recent history says he should be in contention for the win this weekend.
It has been a rough start to 2011 for Greg Biffle, but Texas has been kind to him in the past. In addition to his win in 2005, he has finished in the top-10 in his last five starts at the track. Biffle has three top-five finishes during the stretch, and last fall, he had the car that should have won the race if not for the wrong pit strategy.
Sleepers Specials
One of the biggest surprises of the year has been the improved performance of Paul Menard. After delivering career-best performances at some of his worst tracks, he finally gets to head to a track where he has had success in the past. Coming of a 10th-place finish at Texas last fall, Menard could be surprise threat for the win this weekend.
Richard Petty Motorsports is one of the more underrated organizations at 1.5-mile tracks, and A.J. Allmendinger is proof. He has finished in the top-15 in his last three starts at Texas, finishing as high as 10th. Allmendinger has been up and down in 2011, but Texas has been kind to him in the past.
Big Names to Avoid
He is in the middle of a great season, but Juan Pablo Montoya has had more than his fair share of bad luck at Texas. In eight starts, he has a 25.1 average finish and has yet to finish in the top-five. He has failed to crack the top-25 in each of his last three starts at the track.
Despite being one of the top performers at 1.5-mile tracks, Brian Vickers has never had a lot of success at Texas. In 12 career starts, he has compiled a 23.8 average finish and has yet to finish inside the top-10. Vickers has finished outside the top-15 in his last six starts.
Check out the opening vegas odds to win the 2011 Samsung Mobile 500 this Saturday night, April 9th at Texas Motor Speedway in Fort Worth, Texas.
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