Las Vegas Motor Speedway has come a long way from the relatively flat track that entered the Cup Series. Progressive banking has increased the speeds at LVMS and made side-by-side racing a common site. While there is no doubt that the changes have made the racing more exciting for the fans, the track’s new layout has made the conditions more treacherous as well. Considering all the wrecks the Cup Series has seen this year in just two races, gamblers need to be crossing their fingers that whoever they put their money on can stay out of trouble.
Last season, Jeff Gordon appeared to have the race in hand. He led 219 of the 267 laps and was unstoppable for a majority of the event. However, a decision by his crew chief to take just two tires on the final stop proved to be his undoing. Jimmie Johnson opted for four tires, and he was able to overtake Gordon in the closing laps. Gambling may be a popular activity in Vegas, but Gordon learned a harsh lesson about gambling on two-tire stops at a track with the high speeds of LVMS.
The Favorites
Defending race winner Jimmie Johnson has been to Victory Lane in four of the last six races at Vegas. Those four wins are the most in track history. Johnson reeled off three wins in a row from 2005 to 2007, and his victory last season could be the start of another winning streak.
Fresh off a win at Phoenix that snapped a 66-race winless drought, Jeff Gordon could make it two wins in two weeks. Gordon gave away a win in last season’s race at Vegas, but he has managed five finishes of sixth or better in his last six starts at the track. With the monkey finally off his back, the victories could start piling up for Gordon.
Nevada native Kyle Busch has had no problem performing in front of his home track fans. He has three finishes of third or better, including a victory in 2009. Busch hasn’t finished outside the top-15 in his last six Vegas starts, and rest assured that he will do whatever he needs to do to get the win in his home state.
The Dark Horses
He hasn’t won at Vegas, but Kevin Harvick has been inching ever closer. He has a 6.0 average finish in his last three starts at the track, including a second-place finish last season. Harvick’s two-best finishes at the track have come in the last three seasons, and 2011 could be the year he breaks through.
He has cooled off a bit at Vegas since winning back-to-back races in 2003 and 2004, but Matt Kenseth remains one of the top performers at the track. He has finished in the top-five in three of his last five starts at LVMS, including a fifth-place run last season.
Sleepers Specials
Maybe it beginner’s luck, but success has come naturally to Joey Logano at Vegas. He finished 13th in his track debut and sixth last season. His 9.5 average finish is currently the best among active drivers, and if his trend of improvement continues, he could threaten for the win this weekend.
In each of the last two seasons, David Reutimann has won a race at a 1.5-mile track. Vegas isn’t on that list yet, but he has finished as high as fourth at the track. He isn’t the biggest name in the sport, but he has proven he can win at tracks with Vegas’ layout.
Big Names to Avoid
Unlike his younger brother, Kurt Busch has crumbled on the pressure of racing in front of his family and friends. He has finished outside the top-15 in five straight starts at the track, including four straight finishes outside the top-20. Busch has a 23.1 average finish at the track since the start of the 2002 season.
He has been up and down at the 1.5-mile tracks throughout his career, but Juan Pablo Montoya has never had any success at LVMS. He has finished 19th or worse in all four starts, finishing outside the top-30 in his last two outings. You’re wasting you money if you back Montoya and his 27.3 average finish at Vegas.
Check out the 2011 Kobalt Tools 400 Odds for each driver.