2011 FedEx 400 Benefiting Autism Speaks Vegas Odds and Predictions – Favorites and Drivers to Bet On: This weekend, Cup Series teams will have to do battle with a 1.0-mile concrete oval known as Dover International Speedway. The track has provided some great racing over the years, along with plenty of violent wrecks. As a result, Dover has been dubbed the “Monster Mile” by NASCAR fans.
In the May race last year, an epic duel between two of the sport’s best took place. Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch went back and forth for the lead throughout the race, combining to lead 356 of the 400 laps. Johnson actually led a race-high 225 laps, but a late speeding penalty dropped him to the tail end of the lead lap. Busch seized control from there and pulled away to an easy win.
The fall race was a near repeat, but this time, Johnson closed the deal. He again led the most laps, and he was able to pass Kyle Busch on the final green flag run to secure the win. The other major player during the race was pole-sitter A.J. Allmendinger. He led 143 laps early in the race, but a cut tire prevented him from making it a three-car fight for the win.
The Favorites
No driver has spent more time near the front at Dover in recent years than Carl Edwards. He leads all active drivers with a 7.7 average finish at the track, and he has never finished outside the top-20 in 13 career starts. Edwards has finished 11th or better in his last nine starts at Diver, picking up a win and six top-five finishes.
When it comes to winning races at Dover, nobody does it better than Jimmie Johnson. He has won an incredible six times at the concrete track, and more importantly, he has won three of the last four races. Johnson led the most laps in both events at Dover a year ago, and he has to be on everyone’s short list of favorites.
Two-time Dover winner Kyle Busch has been one of the most impressive drivers all season, and he will try to win back-to-back May races at the track this weekend. In 12 starts at Dover, he has finished sixth or better seven times. Busch has had his share of wrecks as well, but when his car is in one piece, he is running near the front.
The Dark Horses
He is quietly having one of the best years of his career, and Ryan Newman could continue to roll this weekend. His 10.3 average finish at Dover is the third-best mark in the series, and he has recorded 17 top-15 finishes in 20 starts at the track. More importantly, Newman has made three trips to Victory Lane at Dover, making him a legitimate threat to win this weekend.
Despite a mediocre effort at Dover last fall, Matt Kenseth shouldn’t be forgotten this weekend. In his last 10 starts at the track, he has tallied eight top-10 finishes, including seven top-five runs. Kenseth has one win at Dover in his career, but he has been close to adding win No. 2 on several occasions.
Sleepers Specials
If it weren’t for a cut tire last fall, A.J. Allmendinger could have easily celebrated his first career Cup Series win at Dover. He started on the pole and dominated up until his tire issue. Success at the track is becoming common for Allmendinger, and he has managed three straight top-15 finishes entering this weekend’s race.
The poster boy for bad luck in 2011 has been Joey Logano, but it’s tough to argue with his numbers at Dover. In four starts at the track, he has three top-15 finishes. He continues to improve as well, and last season, he finished in the top-10 in both races. Last fall, Logano finished a career-best third.
Big Names to Avoid
He broke out of his Dover slump last season with a pair of top-10 runs, but Denny Hamlin is still a risky bet this weekend. He has managed just four top-10s in 10 career starts, along with four finishes of 36th or worse. Hamlin may be able to finish in the top-10, but it is a bit of a reach to expect him to suddenly win at what is probably his worst track on the schedule.
He opened some eyes with his fifth-place finish at Dover last May, but David Reutimann doesn’t have a history of success at the track. In his other six starts, he hasn’t even finished in the top-15. One good finish amid a bunch of disappointing performances seems more like a fluke than anything else.
Check out the opening vegas odds to win the 2011 FedEx 400 this Sunday, May 15th at Dover International Speedway in Dover, Delaware.
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