2011 Aaron’s 499 Vegas Odds and Predictions – Favorites and Drivers to Bet On: The biggest upset of the 2011 season came in the season opener at Daytona when rookie Trevor Bayne won in just his second career Cup Series starts. This weekend, the series heads to Talladega Superspeedway where they same engine and aero packages that produced Bayne’s upset win will be in use. With another unpredictable outcome expected, bettors have to be salivating over the possibility of another longshot win.
Last April, it wasn’t a longshot winner in victory, but Kevin Harvick did need a last lap pass to get the job done. Harvick waited in the back of the pack until the closing laps before making his charge. He closed on Jamie McMurray coming to the white flag, and on the last lap, he dove to the inside of McMurray’s No. 1. Harvick edged McMurray to the line by a few inches for the win.
In the fall, Harvick was again involved in a photo finish. However, it was his Richard Childress Racing teammate Clint Bowyer that came out on the winning end. How close was the finish? NASCAR had to go back and watch video replay before ultimately declaring Bowyer the winner.
The Favorites
As the introduction indicates, Kevin Harvick had a pretty good year at Talladega in 2010. His stay out of trouble early and make a charge in the closing laps strategy appears to be working for him. After finishes of first and second at the track last season, Harvick has to be considered one of the top options this weekend.
He scored his first career restrictor-plate track win at Talladega last fall, but there is reason to believe Clint Bowyer is just getting started. He has finished 12th or better in six of his last seven starts at the track, and Bowyer owns the second-best driver rating at plate tracks since the start of the 2008 season.
Although he hasn’t won at Talladega, Kurt Busch has been Mr. Consistency at the track. In his last 13 starts, he has nine top-10 finishes, and all nine finishes have been eighth or better. Busch looked strong is the season opener, and with the same package being used this weekend, he could get finally get that elusive Talladega win.
The Dark Horses
He is still looking for an oval track win, but Juan Pablo Montoya has been close at Talladega on multiple occasions. He has finished as high as second at the track, and he has finished third in each of his last two starts. Montoya is one of the most underrated plate track drivers in the series, and it is only a matter of time before he breaks through.
The 2011 season has been a resurgent one for Dale Earnhardt Jr. with top-10 finishes starting to become the norm. He is a five-time winner at the track, and he has finished in the top-15 in three of his last four starts. Junior is one of the best plate track drivers in NASCAR history, and he is always a threat to win.
Sleepers Specials
The highlight of Brad Keselowski’s Cup Series career came in 2009 when a last lap pass put him in Victory Lane in his Talladega debut in 2009. He has been able to maintain the success at the track, finishing in the top-10 in three of his four starts. Keselowski has shown the ability to run near the front at Talladega, and that is a huge plus at an unpredictable track.
It has been a long year for Joey Logano, but it has to get better sometime. The young driver has found a lot of early success at Talladega, finishing in the top-10 in three of his four starts. Logano is slumping now, but his slump could come to an end with a win this weekend.
Big Names to Avoid
He won last weekend at Texas, but bettors need to think twice before backing Matt Kenseth this weekend. He had finished outside the top-10 in his last eight starts at Talladega, and he has finished outside the top-15 in his last seven starts. Back-to-back wins aren’t likely for the No. 17 team.
Carl Edwards has been one of the best in the business for several years, but Talladega has never been his specialty. He has a 22.1 career average finish and has just three top-10s in 13 starts. Edwards has never won at the track, and he has finished outside the top-10 in eight straight starts.
Check out the opening vegas odds to win the 2011 Aaron’s 499 this Sunday, April 17th at Talladega Superspeedway in Talladega, Alabama.
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