2011 Aaron’s 499 Breakdown – Beating the Odds: Who to Bet On

2011 Aaron’s 499 Betting Odds Breakdown – Who to Bet On and How to Win Money on NASCAR Betting this week: It’s another week of bumping and banging as the Cup Series heads to a short track in Martinsville, Virginia. NASCAR’s smallest and slowest track has been dominated by Denny Hamlin and Jimmie Johnson the last few years, and the two have combined to win the last nine races at the track. Needless to say, bettors should lean toward both drivers when putting money down this weekend. At the same time, the streak has to end sometime. If it does, you should ready to capitalize on the odds.

Apparently the oddsmakers didn’t pay attention to Paul Menard and his performance in the season opener because he is 40/1 longshot to win at Talladega this weekend. Menard led 11 laps and finished ninth in this year’s Daytona 500, and with the same rules in play this weekend, he should be a contender once again. The best finish of his Cup career is a second-place run at Talladega, and in case the same track is the site of his first career Cup win, bettors will want to get in on the action.

At 28/1 odds, Juan Pablo Montoya is probably the most underrated driver heading into Sunday’s race. In his last two starts at Talladega, Montoya has a pair of third-place finishes. He finished sixth in the first restrictor-plate race of this season as well, and he is well on his way to becoming one of the top plate drivers in the series. Bettors should jump on the bandwagon before he starts winning races because the payoff is only going to go down once he does.

Despite being mediocre at best at most tracks, David Ragan has been surprisingly effective at Talladega. In fact, his 14.3 average finish at the track is currently among the five best marks in the series. Ragan is getting 30/1 odds to win this weekend, and getting those odds on a top-five driver is a steal for bettors.

He swept both races at Talladega in 2007, but Jeff Gordon has struggled at the track since. He has just one top-15 finish in his last six starts, but he is still getting 15/1 odds to win this weekend. Gordon’s odds are based on his reputation alone, and bettors don’t get paid based on a driver’s reputation.

Among his accomplishments at Talladega are a streak of three straight second-place finishes and a trip to Victory Lane. That being said, Tony Stewart and his 10/1 odds this weekend are far too generous. Since becoming an owner/driver for Stewart-Haas Racing, he has finished outside the top-15 in all four starts, including three finishes outside the top-20.

Carl Edwards has done his fair share of winning over the years, but Talladega isn’t on the list of tracks he has conquered. In fact, he has just three top-10s at the track in 13 career starts. Edwards hasn’t even cracked the top-10 in his last eight starts, but he is still getting 15/1 odds to win this weekend. Bettors should stay away at those odds.

He is a 100/1 longshot to win this weekend, but Bobby Labonte looked pretty darn good in the season opener at Daytona. The veteran is good at staying out of trouble, and it paid off to the tune of a top-five finish in the Daytona 500. Labonte finally has decent equipment to work with, and he is patient enough to survive all the wrecks that Talladega dishes out and be in the mix at the end. 

View the most current vegas betting odds to win the 2011 Aaron’s 499 for this Sunday, April 17th at Talladega Superspeedway.