2011 AAA 400 Odds, Predictions, Betting Tips and Free Picks – Favorites and Lines to Win AAA 400 at Dover International Speedway in Dover, Delaware: NASCAR betting odds to win the 2011 AAA 400 this Sunday, October 2nd at Dover International Speedway in Dover, Delaware have been posted at all the major Las Vegas and best online sportsbooks with Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch having been installed as the +700 favorites to win the 2011 AAA 400.
Prior to the start of the Chase, Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon and Kyle Busch were viewed as the frontrunners to win the 2011 Sprint Cup. Two races into the playoffs, Tony Stewart and Kevin Harvick have emerged as the surprising favorites with Brad Keselowski as the Cinderella story. Bettors have to be willing to adjust their strategy in the closing weeks, even if it means going away from the drivers that have been the big money makers for most of the year. Momentum is big in NASCAR, and Stewart, Harvick and Keselowski appear to have the hot hands.
Last fall, Jimmie Johnson put on a dominant performance on his way to his sixth career win at Dover. He led a race-high 191 laps, winning the Chase event at the track for the second year in a row. A.J. Allmendinger was the other major player in the race, leading 143 laps. A cut tire actually dropped him two laps off the pace at one point, and while his chances to win were ruined, Allmendinger did rally did get back on the lead lap and finish 10th.
Earlier this year, Johnson appeared to be on his way to another win as he and Carl Edwards separated themselves from the field. The two combined to lead 324 of the 400 laps with Johnson leading a race-high 207. However, a late race caution brought pit strategy into play, and while Johnson and Edwards opted for four tires, several other drivers took fuel only or two tires. Johnson and Edwards were unable to navigate the traffic in the closing laps, allowing Matt Kenseth to sneak away and steal the win.
The Favorites – 2011 AAA 400 Odds, Predictions and Free Picks
Since joining the Cup Series, Jimmie Johnson has been synonymous with winning at Dover. He has six career wins at the track, including three in his last five starts and back-to-back Chase race wins. Johnson has finished outside the top 15 only three times in 19 career starts at Dover, and he has never finished outside the top 15 in a Chase event at the track. A seventh career win at the track could be the catalyst to a sixth straight series title.
He is going for the season sweep at Dover this weekend, and there is good reason to believe Matt Kenseth could pull it off. After all, he has finished fourth or better in six of his last seven starts at the track and has finished in the top five in eight of his last 11 starts. Kenseth has won twice during his hot stretch, and recent history says he will be in the mix for the win again Sunday.
Although he has just one win at Dover, Carl Edwards always seems to be in the mix for a win at the 1.0-mile track. He has never finished outside the top 20 at Dover in his career, and he has finished 11th or better in his last 10 starts. Edwards also has five finishes of third or better during that stretch, and he led more than 100 laps in the May event this season. It is only a matter of time before he gets another win.
The Dark Horses – 2011 AAA 400 Lines, Preview and Expert Picks
Veteran Mark Martin has finished in the top 15 in six straight starts at Dover, and he has finished outside the top 15 only once in his last 15 starts at the track. He has eight finishes of fourth or better during the stretch, including a trip to Victory Lane. Martin finished second at Dover in the May event, and he could be a contender for the win for the first time in a long time this weekend.
Coming off a third-place finish last weekend, Greg Biffle could stay hot this weekend at Dover. He has 12 top-15 finishes in his last 14 starts at the track, including a pair of wins. Biffle has a total of five finishes of third or better during the stretch, and he should have a legitimate chance to end his winless drought this weekend.
Sleepers Specials – 2011 AAA 400 Vegas Odds, Expert Predictions and Free Picks
After struggling to crack the top 20 in his first five starts at Dover, Marcos Ambrose came out of nowhere to finish third at the track earlier this year. While the surprise run could be written off as a fluke, it is worth noting that it came in his first start at the track with Richard Petty Motorsports. The improved equipment may have been all that was missing for Ambrose, and his finish in May could be a sign of things to come. Sunday’s race will be the true test.
He has three top-15 finishes in his last four starts at Dover, and A.J. Allmendinger has finished in the top 10 in each of his last two Chase starts at the track. More importantly, he had a car capable of winning at Dover last fall. Allmendinger led 143 laps before cutting a tire and falling two laps off the pace. He did manage to rally and finish 10th, and if he can avoid the bad luck this weekend, he could notch his first career Cup Series win.
Big Names to Avoid – 2011 AAA 400 Betting Odds, Predictions and Free NASCAR Picks
As if his 2011 Chase wasn’t off to a rough enough start, Denny Hamlin must now contend with one of his worst tracks. He has finished outside the top 20 five times in 11 starts at Dover, including four finishes of 36th or worse. Hamlin has never won at the track, and he failed to crack the top 15 in the May event this season.
He may be the hottest driver in the series, but Tony Stewart hasn’t exactly been a stud at Dover in recent years. He has just one top-five finish at the track since the fall of 2004, and he has finished outside the top 20 in his last two starts. Momentum may carry Stewart to a decent afternoon, but he hasn’t won at the track since 2000.
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Be sure to check the NSAwins.com Betting Daily Blog all week for updated 2011 AAA 400 odds, free tips, free picks, predictions and articles from NASCAR expert tipster Brian Polking. NSAwins.com is your home for 2011 AAA 400 Betting Odds and Handicapping coverage!
2011 Sylvania 300 Odds – September 25th at Dover International Speedway in Dover, Delaware.
Driver Odds to Win the 2011 AAA 400
101 Jimmie Johnson +700
102 Kyle Busch +700
103 Carl Edwards +800
104 Jeff Gordon +900
105 Tony Stewart +900
106 Matt Kenseth +1000
107 Kevin Harvick +1200
108 Kurt Busch +1500
109 Brad Keselowski +1500
110 Greg Biffle +1800
111 Denny Hamlin +2000
112 Clint Bowyer +2000
113 Mark Martin +2500
114 Dale Earnhardt Jr +3000
115 Kasey Kahne +3000
116 Ryan Newman +3000
117 AJ Allmendinger +3500
118 Martin Truex Jr +3500
119 Jeff Burton +3500
120 Joey Logano +4000
121 Field +1500
Check the latest NASCAR Odds and Betting Lines from BoDog below: