Yankees @ Reds Odds, Lines, Free Picks and Predictions – Free MLB Picks 6-20-11

Free MLB Picks, Tips and Odds: NY Yankees @ Cincinnati Reds Favorite, Moneyline, Total and Expert Predictions 6/20/11: A pair of playoff contending teams will square off on ESPN’s Monday Night Baseball when the New York Yankees and Cincinnati Reds meet in an interleague matchup. New York enters the contest with a 41-29 record and sits just two games out of first in the American League East. The Reds fine themselves in a similar spot, sitting two games out of first in the National League Central with a 38-35 record. Both clubs made the playoffs last season, and both have enough talent to do the same in 2011.

Offense, offense and more offense is the name of the game for both teams. The Yankees currently lead all of baseball with 103 home runs and rank second in terms of runs scored. Cincinnati ranks third in runs scored, and both clubs rank inside the top 10 in terms of team batting average. New York sluggers Mark Teixeira and Curtis Granderson are tied for the major league lead with 21 home runs each, while the Reds are led by defending NL MVP Joey Votto and outfielder Jay Bruce, who is coming off a month of May when he lead the majors in homers and RBIs.

With both offenses capable of taking over a game, this matchup will likely boil down to pitching, and that is where the Reds have a serious advantage. Cincinnati’s ace Johnny Cueto will face New York’s No. 5 starter Ivan Nova. After starting the season on the disabled list, Cueto has been lights out for the Reds. He enters Monday’s game with a 4-2 record and a 1.68 ERA. He also boasts an impressive 36 strikeouts to just 15 walks. Nova on the other hand has been winning mainly thanks to plenty of run support. He is 6-4 this season but has a 4.46 ERA and an ugly 1.56 WHIP. In 72 innings pitched, he has managed just 37 strikeouts, and he has walked nearly as many (32).

Cueto has the obvious edge based on the overall numbers alone, but he also has an edge based on lineups for both clubs. Nova is a righty, and Cincinnati’s two best hitters, Votto and Bruce, are both lefties that kill right-handed pitching. He has surrendered five of his six home runs this season to left-handed hitters, and lefties are hitting .275 against him. Cueto is a righty as well, but he is better equipped to handle the string of power-hitting lefties the Yankees bring to the table. In fact, lefties are only hitting .202 against Cueto this season, which is slightly worse than what right-handed batters are hitting against him.

Given the advantage Cincinnati should have on the mound, it is no surprise that the Reds are favored by 1 ½ runs. Home field advantage should help give the Cincinnati offense a boost as well, but it won’t be the deciding factor. After all, the Yankees are one of the better road teams in baseball this year at 17-12. However, Nova has accounted for just two of those road wins.  

Expect the Reds(Check latest odds and lines at BetGuardian Sportsbook) to chase Nova early in the game and continue to push runs across the board on an injury-riddled New York bullpen. Cueto isn’t likely to pitch a shutout against the stout offense of the Yankees, but a quality start is all it should take to allow Cincinnati to take the series opener by a comfortable margin.

Free MLB Picks and Expert Tips: Play Cincinnati Reds -1.5 on the Runline

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