Sunday Night ESPN Baseball Red Sox @ Rays Odds, Lines, Free Picks and Predictions – Free MLB Picks 7-17-11

Sunday Night ESPN Baseball Free MLB Picks, Tips and Odds: Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox Favorite, Moneyline, Total and Expert Predictions 7/17/11: There are currently five teams in the American League that have reached 50 wins this season, and three of them happen to play in the AL East. Sunday night on ESPN, two of those teams will face off as the division-leading Boston Red Sox meet the Tampa Bay Rays in the rubber game of a three-game series. With the season past its halfway point, every game between these division rivals has playoff implications.

When breaking down the matchup, it is impossible not to start with the seemingly unstoppable offense of the Red Sox. Led by AL MVP frontrunner Adrian Gonzalez, Boston currently leads all of baseball in team batting average, runs scored and on-base percentage. With Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia setting the table and Gonzalez, David Ortiz and Kevin Youkilis driving them in, opposing pitchers won’t find a soft spot anywhere in the Boston lineup. The high-powered offense has guided the Red Sox to the best record in the AL thus far.

The winning formula has been a bit different for the Rays. Tampa Bay’s offense ranks in the middle of the pack or worse in most major categories, but a deep starting rotation and a surprisingly effective bullpen has the Rays in the hunt in the AL East. Three starters have already won eight or more games, and David Price and James Shields are among the best strikeout artists in the game today. Couple that with closer Kyle Farnsworth has converted 18 of 20 saves in 2011, and it is easy to see why Tampa Bay has been able to overcome a lackluster offense.

Unfortunately for the Rays, they don’t have one of their top starters on the mound for Sunday night’s showdown. Meanwhile, the battered Red Sox rotation happens to have one of its top arms taking the hill. Tampa Bay’s Jeff Niemann will face Boston’s Josh Beckett, and although both pitchers were former first round picks, the comparisons end there. Niemann is 4-4 this year with a 4.53 ERA, while Beckett is 8-3 with a 2.27 ERA – the second-best in the AL. Beckett also ranks third in WHIP with a 0.95 mark and leads the league with a .187 batting average against. In short, Boston’s ace is facing Tampa Bay’s fifth wheel in this one.

Niemann has pitched well in his two most recent starts, giving up only a single run in each. However, tonight’s game is going to come down to how well he can contain the power-hitting lefties in Boston’s lineup. Five of the seven homers Niemann has surrendered in 2011 have been to left-handed hitters. If Gonzalez and Ortiz get to bat with men on base, it could be a short night for the Tampa Bay starter.

An X-factor for Tampa Bay could be outfielder B.J. Upton. He recently altered his stance at the plate, and the early returns have been very promising. Upton has at least one hit in all but one game since the start of July, raising his batting average from .223 to .242. For a player that already leads the Rays with 15 home runs and 52 RBIs, the newfound consistency at the plate could transform Upton from a solid player into a game changer. If Tampa Bay is going to get a big hit tonight to chase Beckett, it will likely come off the bat of Upton.

In the end, the matchup is just too favorable for the Red Sox. They have their best pitcher on the mound, and they are facing a pitcher that plays right to the strength of their already potent lineup. Tonight’s contest has all the makings of the blowout in favor of Boston. Expect a strong start from Beckett, if not a gem. Meanwhile, Gonzalez and company should have no problem providing amble run support.

Free Sunday Night ESPB Baseball Tips and Prediction: Boston Red Sox (-1 ½) Cover the Spread

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