Sunday Night ESPN Baseball Free MLB Picks, Tips and Odds: Atlanta Braves @ Cincinnati Reds Favorite, Moneyline, Total and Expert Predictions 7/24/11: Two clubs with playoff aspirations will face off Sunday night in the rubber game of a three-game series when the wildcard-leading Atlanta Braves meet the defending NL Central champion Cincinnati Reds. AT 49-51 and 4.5 games back in their division, the Reds need this one more, but the Braves have plenty of motivation as well as they attempt to run down the Philadelphia Phillies for the best record in the National League. Both clubs are just 5-5 in their last 10 games as they deal with a variety of injuries, and a little momentum is up for grabs in this one.
The series opener was a back-and-forth affair decided by a pinch-hit homer from the struggling Dan Uggla that gave Atlanta a 6-4 win. In Saturday’s game, the Reds responded with an offensive outburst, winning 11-2 on the strength of a seven-run inning. Sunday night, the Braves will try to pick up a series win on the road while the Reds will try to win back-to-back games for the first time since early June.
Neither team will have its ace on the mound in this one. Atlanta’s rookie Brandon Beachy will go against the recently recalled Dontrelle Willis. Beachy is 3-2 with a 3.75 ERA, while Willis is 0-1 with a 3.38 ERA and will be making just his third start of the year. When two backend of the rotation starters take the mound, there is always a chance that the game could turn into an offensive outburst.
Beachy has the more impressive numbers thus far, striking out 81 batters compared to just 20 walks. He has given up three runs or less in eight of his last nine starts, but the one exception was his most recent outing. Beachy walked a season-high five batters in a loss to the Colorado Rockies, and whether or not the start was just one bad outing or a sign of fatigue from the youngster remains to be seen.
Fatigue could be an issue for Willis as well, following a start when he couldn’t make it out of the fifth inning despite giving up only two runs. It has been a while since Willis pitched effectively at the major league level, and he still needs to build his stamina. The good news is that his spotty control improved dramatically in his second outing.
On offense, defending NL MVP Joey Votto leads a potent but inconsistent Cincinnati lineup. The 11-run outburst Saturday afternoon equaled the total number of runs the Reds put up in their previous six games combined. The overall numbers totaled by the Reds are impressive, but the boom or bust tendency of the offense has kept Cincinnati hovering around .500 most of the year. It doesn’t help that Jay Bruce has been out with an inner-ear issue. Meanwhile, rookie Zack Cozart left Saturday’s game with an elbow injury.
The Atlanta lineup has been a bit more reliable this year, led by catcher Brian McCann. Martin Prado has been another steady contributor, along with rookie Freddie Freeman. Freeman has been one of the top offensive rookies in the majors this season, and he has only getting better as the season progresses. He has a real shot at winning the NL Rookie of the Year Award at this point. That being said, the Braves are down a few bullets with Chipper Jones dealing with an injury and Jason Heyward struggling to find his swing.
Not knowing what to expect out of either offense, Sunday’s game will likely come down to which starter can get the job done. Given his ability to strike out opposing batters, the edge has to go to Beachy. With the exception of Votto, the Reds are a free-swinging bunch, prone to striking out. In fact, Cincinnati center fielder Drew Stubbs leads the majors in the category. Meanwhile, Willis will likely struggle to go more than five to six innings as he works his way back into shape. Once an overworked Reds’ bullpen gets into the game, the Braves will have an opportunity to capitalize.
Expect a strong outing from Beachy as he pads his already impressive strikeout totals. Meanwhile, Willis will likely provide quality but limited innings. Atlanta will take advantage of the Reds’ relievers and take control of the game in the second half of the game. After all, there is a reason the Braves are 17 games over .500 and the Reds are two games under.
Free Sunday Night ESPN Baseball Tips and Prediction: Atlanta Braves (-1 ½) Cover the Spread
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| Atlanta Braves @ Cincinnati Reds Date: 7/24/2011 Time: 8:05 PM EST on ESPN Vegas Odds – Favorite: Atlanta Braves -120(moneyline) Total: Over/Under 9 Runs |
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