2014 MLB Home Run Derby Odds and Predictions: Vegas Favorites and Sleepers

2014 MLB Home Run Derby Odds and Predictions: Vegas Favorites and Sleepers : The Home Run Derby is one of the most popular events of the All-Star break, and the 2014 competition will feature a brand new layout. The American League and National League participants will first battle it out with the other representatives from their respective leagues before the top slugger from each league meet in the final round. Meanwhile, the number of outs per round will be reduced from 10 to seven, and the player from each league that hits the most home runs in the first round will receive a pass into the semifinals as a way of rewarding players for going all out every round and preventing them from trying to conserve energy. Keeping in mind the new rules, here is a closer look at the top contenders for the 2014 Home Run Derby as well as a few dark horses candidates.

The Favorites

In terms of raw power, no player can match what Miami Marlins slugger Giancarlo Stanton brings to the table. He leads the National League with 21 homers, and more importantly, he leads the majors with an average homer distance of 423.76 feet. In fact, Stanton has five home runs of at least 450 feet this season, and no other team in baseball has combined for more than four. He has more than enough muscle to win the derby.

He has developed into one of the better power hitters in the game the past couple of years, and Toronto outfielder Jose Bautista is having another solid season. He heads into the derby with 17 homers and is averaging almost 405 feet per blast. Bautista appears to be fully recovered from the wrist injury that has bothered him at times the past year or two, and at full strength, he is more than capable of winning the Home Run Derby.

Defending derby winner Yoenis Cespedes will try to make it back-to-back titles Monday, and while his season totals aren’t outstanding, he showed last season that he has more enough juice in his bat to win the competition. While his swing might be just a tick long against major-league pitching, Cespedes should have no trouble unleashing his full power on the batting practice-speed pitching he will see in the derby.

Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Yasiel Puig may only have 12 homer this season, but he is slugging .519 this year and has a .527 slugging percentage since reaching the majors. His athleticism and raw strength are elite, and Puig basically looks like a linebacker with a bat. His personality could also play an important factor. Puig clearly loves putting on a show, and he will have a golden opportunity to wow an entire stadium Monday night. Puig has the power and attitude to take the derby title.

The Sleepers

Although it’s true that Colorado Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki is more of an all-around hitter than a pure slugger, few players have been hitting the ball as hard on a consistent basis in 2014. Tulowitzki leads the majors with a .344 batting average and leads the National League with a .613 slugging percentage. Yes, he tends to be the type of hitter that sprays line drivers to all fields, but he has sprayed 21 balls over the fence so far so his power is legit. Tulowitzki probably won’t wow the crowd with his distance, but he could outlast the competition with his steady stroke.

In 2008, Josh Hamilton put on an unforgettable show by launching 28 home runs in the first round of the Home Run Derby. However, Justin Morneau actually ended up winning the competition that year, and while concussions nearly ended his career, he has bounced back in a big way for the Colorado Rockies in 2014. The lefty has a smooth stroke, and the former MVP has recaptured some of the power that he has been lacking in recent years. He quietly won the 2008 derby, and he could do the same this year.

He has been enjoying a breakout season, and Cincinnati Reds third baseman Todd Frazier has the powerful, compact stroke that could do well in the Home Run Derby. There isn’t a lot of motion to his swing, but it still packs plenty of punch as evidenced by his 18 homers and by the fact that he averages over 400 feet per home run. His quick, powerful approach could help keep him fresh, and if Frazier can advance past the first round, he could go all the way.

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