2013 MLB Postseason Picks: Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates Odds and Predictions – Free MLB Playoff Picks

2013 MLB Postseason Picks: Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates Odds and Predictions – Free MLB Playoff Picks: The NL Central was about as dominant as a division can be this year, and three teams made the playoffs. Two those teams will square off Tuesday night in the wild card game when the Cincinnati Reds (90-72) head to Pittsburgh to face the Pirates (94-68) with the winner advancing to face division rival St. Louis in the NLDS. The two teams have seen plenty of each other this season, and Tuesday’s meeting will be the 20th of the year between the two. The Pirates currently hold an 11-8 edge in the series, and they are favored at home in Tuesday’s wild card game.

Both teams have used similar recipes for success with dominant pitching making up for inconsistent offenses. Overall, Cincinnati has been the slightly more productive offensive team with outfielder Shin-Shoo Choo and first baseman Joey Votto both ranking among the league leaders in on-base percentage, and outfielders Jay Bruce and second baseman Brandon Phillips ranking among the RBI leaders. However, Pittsburgh’s lineup features the speedy Starling Marte at the top and MVP candidate Andrew McCutchen and slugger Pedro Alvarez in the middle. Midseason acquisition Marlon Byrd has also been solid.

Cincinnati will send Johnny Cueto (5-2, 2.82 ERA) to the mound while Pittsburgh will send (16-8, 3.02 ERA). The Reds originally planned to start Mat Latos, but elbow soreness has him sidelined. Cincinnati also has flamethrower Aroldis Chapman to close the door, but Pittsburgh bullpen has been rock solid all year. Defensively, Pittsburgh’s outfield can cover a ton of ground, but Cincinnati’s infield is the more reliable of the two.

The Reds Win If:

If the Reds are going to keep their season alive, they have to have a solid outing from Cueto. Cincinnati’s middle relief has been hot and cold all year, but if Cueto can go at least seven innings, Chapman could close things out from there. At the plate, the Reds need their right-handed hitters like Phillips and outfielder Ryan Ludwick to help chase Liriano as early as possible. The sooner the Reds can get Pittsburgh’s ace left off the mound, the sooner Votto, Bruce and Choo have a chance to do some major damage.  If Cincinnati’s right-handed hitters deliver against Liriano and Cueto can deliver a strong start, the Reds can get past Pittsburgh.

The Pirates Win If:

Liriano has been downright unhittable at times this year, and a strong start Tuesday will go a long way to helping the Pirates advance. In particular, Liriano needs to avoid walking batters and making sure that Cincinnati’s right-handed batters don’t bat with runners in scoring position. Offensively, the Pirates need at least one of their sluggers to provide a big hit. Pittsburgh isn’t a team that manufactures a lot of runs, but one big blast from Alvarez, McCutchen or someone else will be enough to put a lot of pressure on an already-inconsistent Cincinnati offense. If Liriano and the Pittsburgh pen holds the Reds to only a couple of runs, the Pirates have enough pop in their lineup to come up with the hits it needs to win.

Bottom Line:

For the Reds, the unexpected loss of Latos couldn’t have come at a worse time. Granted, Cueto has ace-caliber stuff in his own right, but he has made just two starts since June and is still getting his stamina back. Perhaps more importantly, Liriano has dominated left-handed hitters this year, and Cincinnati’s three best hitters are all lefties. Throw in the fact that the Reds have been in a slump offensively anyway and just got swept at home by the Pirates, and there is little reason to expect Cincinnati to suddenly right the ship in Pittsburgh with the season on the line.

Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates Win the Game

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