2013 MLB National League Home Run Odds and Predictions: Favorites, Dark Horses and Sleepers: While it certainly takes a lot of talent and ability for a player to win a home run title at the major league level, timing can be just as important. I’m not talking about timing at the plate either. After all, Sammy Sosa hit more than 60 homers on three separate occasions, but he failed to lead the National League in home runs in all three of those seasons. On the flip side, Sosa did lead the NL with just 50 home runs once. Heck, Matt Kemp led the NL in round-trippers two years ago and didn’t even hit 40. The amount of home runs it will take to capture league title varies wildly depending on the year, and while there are players that consistently show more power than others, there is always the chance for a surprise winner. This is especially true in the NL where three of the last six home run champs have recently moved to the American League. With that in mind, here is a look at the frontrunners and other contenders for the National League home run title in 2013.
2013 MLB NL Home Run Champ Odds and Predictions
The Favorites
After winning the NL MVP in 2011, Milwaukee outfielder Ryan Braun led the National League with 41 home runs last year. The power is nothing new for the Brewers’ top player, and Braun has hit at least 32 homers in five of his six seasons in the majors. He shook of the PED rumors last year to the tune of a .319/41/112 line so there is no reason to think Braun won’t have another monster year at the plate in 2013. Another home run crown could be on tap for one of baseball’s best hitters.
Owner Jeffrey Loria gave away just about every decent player on Miami’s roster with the exception of Giancarlo Stanton, and the Marlins’ outfielder was born to smack home runs. After hitting 34 homers in his first full season in the majors, Stanton hit a career-high 37 last season to rank second in the National League. Did I mention that he hit his 37 home runs in just 123 games? At that rate, Stanton would finish with around 49 home runs if he plays a full season. His raw power is undeniable, and his pursuit of the National League home run title could be the only thing remotely interesting going on in Miami in 2013.
The Dark Horses
A nagging hamstring injury ruined his 2012 campaign, but Los Angeles Dodgers’ outfielder Matt Kemp is a beast at the plate when healthy. In fact, he led the National League with 39 home runs in 2011 and still managed 23 last year in only 403 plate appearances. Given his aggressive base running style and duties in center field, the leg injuries that bothered Kemp last season could always rear their ugly head. However, there is no reason he can’t snag another NL home run crown in 2013 if he plays a full season.
Coming off a career-high 34 home runs, Cincinnati outfielder Jay Bruce could be primed to compete for his first home run title. He has hit more than 20 homers in all five years of his career, and more importantly, he has increased his home run total in every season. After ranking third in the NL in homers last year, Bruce should be right in the mix for the lead if his power continues to trend upward.
The Sleepers
From 2006 to 2009, Philadelphia slugger Ryan Howard hit at least 45 home runs in all four seasons, leading the National League in the category twice and finishing second once. His totals have dropped in recent years, but he did manage to top 30 homers in both 2010 and 2011 before an injury basically wiped out his 2012 season. Howard probably doesn’t have another 50-plus homer season in him, but with a full year to recover from his ruptured Achilles, he could make a push for 40 and a third career home run crown.
One of the lone bright spots for Colorado last year was the 28-homer outburst from rookie catcher Wilin Rosario. By the way, he played just 117 games in 2012, which put him on pace for 39 homers for a full season. You don’t have to worry about the thin air of Coors field inflating his numbers because the 24-year-old backstop’s power was legit. He hit 10 of his 28 bombs away from home, and while the hitter-friendly home ballpark certainly helps, the fact that Rosario can clear the fence just about anywhere gives him a realistic shot of sneaking up and snagging the NL home run title in 2013.
2013 Most Regular Season Home Runs
Jose Bautista +400
Giancarlo Stanton +650
Miguel Cabrera +900
Albert Pujols +1100
Prince Fielder +1300
Ryan Howard +1500
Matt Kemp +1700
Ryan Braun +1900
Jay Bruce +1900
Josh Hamilton +1900
Mike Trumbo +2000
BJ Upton +2000
Adam Dunn +2200
Edwin Encarnacion +2500
Mike Trout +3000
Joey Votto +3200
Robinson Cano +3500
Adrian Beltre +3500
Evan Longoria +3800
Ike Davis +4000
Pedro Alvarez +4500
Troy Tulowitzki +4500
Adrian Gonzalez +4500
Yoenis Cespedes +5000
Carlos Gonzalez +5000
Justin Upton +5000
Chris Davis +5000
Mike Napoli +5000
Aramis Ramirez +6000
Wilin ROsario +6000
Curtis Granderson +6000
Mike Morse +6000
Adam Jones +6000
Mark Reynolds +6300
Josh Willingham +6500
Jason Heyward +6500
Allen Craig +7000
Josh Reddick +7000
Nelson Cruz +8500
Pablo Sandoval +10000
Matt Holliday +10000
Ryan Zimmerman +10000
Hanley Ramirez +10000
Dan Uggla +10000
David Ortiz +10000
David Wright +10000
Carlos Quentin +10000
Chase Headley +10000
Adam LaRoche +10000
Bryce Harper +10000
Buster Posey +10000
Carlos Beltran +10000
Andrew McCutchen +10000
Anthony Rizzo +10000
Billy Butler +10000
Mark Teixeira +20000
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