2013 MLB Home Run Derby Odds and Predictions: Favorites, Dark Horses and Sleepers: It has been tweaked and modified multiple times since it first began in 1985, but the Home Run Derby has become a staple of Major League Baseball’s All-Star Game festivities. After all, what’s not to love about some of the most powerful sluggers in the game trying to out-slug each other by smashing as many balls into the stands as possible? Not to mention the fact that the event has seen plenty of parity over the years. Ken Griffey Jr. has the most wins in the contest with three, but he is one of only two players to win the Home Run Derby on multiple occasions. Meanwhile, David Ortiz currently owns the record for most all-time home runs with 77, yet he has just one title to his name. This year’s field does contain a couple of former winners as well as some first-time participants, and here is a closer look at the players in the group that have the best shot of taking home the 2013 Home Run Derby crown.
The Favorites
He is the defending winner of the Home Run Derby, and Detroit’s Prince Fielder has actually won the contest twice in the last four years. A third title would tie him for the most all-time, and he is also just 15 homers shy of setting the record for most career home runs in contest history. Granted, Fielder is having a down year by his standards, but his 16 homers thus far aren’t a terrible total either. Meanwhile, his raw power has been able to shine through in the Home Run Derby on multiple occasions, and his past success in the event alone makes him one of the frontrunners.
With 37 home runs already in the books, Baltimore’s Chris Davis is making a push to set the single-season record and win himself an MVP Award. Needless to say, this guy has enough power to win the Home Run Derby. As if the fact that Davis has been smashing baseballs out of every park to all fields this entire season wasn’t enough, the right field fence at Citi Field is only 338 feet so the left-handed hitting Davis shouldn’t have a hard time pulling plenty of pitches into the seats. Assuming the pressure of being involved in the contest and the All-Star Game itself for the first time doesn’t get to him, he should be a serious factor.
While he uses his five-tool ability to hit at the top of Washington’s lineup, Bryce Harper’s power is more than legit. Keep in mind that this is the same guy that smacked a 502-foot homer in Tropicana Field as a 15-year-old, and his swing has had scouts drooling for years. This year, Harper has 13 homers at an average distance of 401 feet. The fact that he is ultra-competitive shouldn’t hurt either, and the youngster is likely the National League’s best chance at ending the AL’s three-year run of dominance.
The Dark Horses
An injury to Colorado outfielder Carlos Gonzalez opened the door for Pittsburgh slugger Pedro Alvarez, and he might just have the power to take advantage of the opportunity. After all, his 24 homers are the second most in the National League, and 14 of those have come since June. Sure, he strikes out a lot and has a bad batting average, but with an average home run distance of more than 405 feet, there is no denying his ability to rake when he does get the bat on the ball. Honestly, Alvarez is probably better suited to excel in a Home Run Derby than he is in a real game.
No player is harder to predict this year than New York’s Robinson Cano. One year after winning the 2011 Home Run Derby, he failed to hit even a single homer in the 2012 contest. That being said, the smooth-swinging second baseman has seen his power numbers rise on a steady basis throughout his career, and he already has 21 home runs this season. The short right field fence should benefit the left-handed hitter, and Cano should be back with a vengeance after his embarrassing performance last season.
Sleeper Special
Although Oakland outfielder Yoenis Cespedes has been going through a bit of a sophomore slump, his raw power has remained evident. In fact, his 408.5 average distance on his home runs this season is the highest among the Home Run Derby participants. While pitchers have clearly adjusted to the slugger in his second year in the majors, Cespedes won’t have to do much adjusting in order to crush the soft tosses that will be lobbed his way during the Derby. Don’t be surprised if he makes a serious push to win Monday.
Odds to win the 2013 Chevrolet Home Run Derby
2401 Bryce Harper +500
2402 Chris Davis +290
2403 David Wright +800
2404 Michael Cuddyer +1000
2405 Pedro Alvarez +650
2406 Prince Fielder +250
2407 Robinson Cano +500
2408 Yoenis Cespedes +500
Player to hit the least # of Home Runs in Round 1
2501 Bryce Harper +800
2502 Chris Davis +800
2503 David Wright +350
2504 Michael Cuddyer +300
2505 Pedro Alvarez +350
2506 Prince Fielder +800
2507 Robinson Cano +500
2508 Yoenis Cespedes +500
Player to hit the most # of Home Runs in Round 1
2521 Bryce Harper +350
2522 Chris Davis +350
2523 David Wright +800
2524 Michael Cuddyer +800
2525 Pedro Alvarez +600
2526 Prince Fielder +325
2527 Robinson Cano +500
2528 Yoenis Cespedes +500
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