2013 MLB ALDS Picks: Tampa Bay Rays versus Boston Red Sox Odds and Predictions – Free MLB Playoff Picks

2013 MLB ALDS Picks: Tampa Bay Rays versus Boston Red Sox Odds and Predictions – Free MLB Playoff Picks: A pair of American League East Rivals will meet in an ALDS matchup when the Tampa Bay Rays (92-71) battle the Boston Red Sox (97-65). While Boston powered it ways to the best record in the league and home-field advantage throughout the postseason, the Rays have won three elimination games in four days just to reach the series. Not too bad for two teams that didn’t even make the playoffs a year ago. Of course, both sides should know what to expect from the other after meeting 19 times during the regular season. The Red Sox won the season series 12-7, and they will host Game 1 when the series begins Friday.

For Tampa Bay, a strong starting rotation has carried them all season and in their recent string of elimination games. Starters David Price, Matt Moore and Alex Cobb all have ace-caliber stuff, and as a team, the Rays ranked in the top five in both WHIP and opponent batting average during the year. On the flip side, the Tampa Bay offense doesn’t have a lot of stars outside of third baseman Evan Longoria, and the Rays did rank outside the top 10 in both runs scored and team batting average. That being said, they did post the fourth-best on-base percentage in the league and made up for a lack of big bats with timely hitting.

Boston returned to being an offensive juggernaut in 2013, leading the majors runs scored and team OPS and ranking second in batting average. Stalwarts David Ortiz and Dustin Pedroia both had excellent years, and Jacoby Ellsbury was one the premier base stealers in the game. A career year from Daniel Nava and the addition of Mike Napoli solidified Boston’s lineup as the best in baseball. The Red Sox experienced a revival on the mound, as well. Jon Lester, John Lackey and Clay Buchholz all had solid years, and while Boston was good but no great in most categories, Red Sox starters did rank third in quality starts. With a dominating offense, quality starts is all Boston needed most of the year.

The Rays Win If:

The recipe for Tampa Bay winning this series is a simple one. If the Rays are going to knock off the Red Sox, their starters have to be excellent. Tampa Bay simply doesn’t have the offensive firepower to outslug Boston in a series full of high-scoring games, but if the Rays’ starters can keep the games low scoring, Tampa Bay should be in business. After all, the Rays are certainly used to playing in pressure-packed, close games, and timely hitting has been their specialty. If Tampa Bay’s pitching keeps Boston’s offense in check, the Rays can grind out enough runs to win the series.

The Red Sox Win If:

Boston’s offense has been its strength all year, and if the Red Sox can get the better of Tampa Bay’s pitching, they can control the series. After all, Boston’s pitching has shown it can be solid and consistent, but it has rarely been dominant for long stretches. If the Red Sox need their starters to go match Tampa Bay’s starters pitch for pitch in order to win, they could be in trouble. On the flip side, the Red Sox should be in the driver’s seat if they force the Rays to have to keep pace by scoring a bunch of runs. As long as the series doesn’t become a pitching-dominated, low-scoring affair, Boston should come out on top.

Bottom Line:

While Tampa Bay’s pitching has been brilliant during their pressure-packed run to the ALDS, Boston’s lineup is the most dangerous in baseball. The Red Sox hitters should go off in at least a couple of games during the series, and when they do, the Rays have almost no chance of winning. Meanwhile, Boston still has a fighting chance in the games it doesn’t score a ton of runs. Keep in mind that the Red Sox scored three runs or less in 12 of their 19 games with Tampa Bay during the regular season but still held a 12-7 edge in the series. The Rays’ starters will likely twirl a gem or two, but Tampa Bay just doesn’t have the offense to win a best-of-five series against the Red Sox, especially when Boston has home-field advantage.

Prediction: Boston Red Sox Win the Series

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