2013 MLB American League Home Run Odds and Predictions: Favorites, Dark Horses and Sleepers: Unlike the National League where the home run crown has been up for grabs in recent years, Miguel Cabrera and Jose Bautista have been in control in the American League, combining for four of the last five titles, including three straight. While Cabrera and Bautista have been carrying the banner, there have been several players nipping at their heels that could assume the crown in 2013. The race has actually gotten a little more wide open now that New York outfielder Curtis Granderson has a broken arm. The Yankees’ slugger has been the runner-up for the AL home run crown in each of the past two seasons, and with Granderson likely sidelined through the first month or so of the year, the door is open for some other players to challenge the frontrunners. On that note, here is a look at the top contenders and potential sleepers for the American League home run title in 2013.
2013 MLB AL Home Run Champ Odds and Predictions
The Favorites
A wrist injury derailed his shot at a third straight home run title last year, but Toronto slugger Jose Bautista is healthy heading into 2013. After leading the league with 54 homers in 2010 and 43 in 2011, there is no reason not to expect a healthy Bautista to go right back to contending for the AL crown. Heck, he hit 27 last year in just 92 games, and his wrist wasn’t even 100 percent for some of the games he did play. The fact the Blue Jays retooled the top of their lineup in the offseason should help his cause as opposing pitchers will be less capable of pitching around him with runners on base.
He is probably the best all-around hitter in the American League, and defending AL MVP Miguel Cabrera is coming off a season when he hit a league-high 44 homers on his way to the Triple Crown. The home run title was actually the second of his career, and in nine full seasons in the majors, Cabrera has hit at least 30 home runs eight times. More importantly, his two single-season home run totals have come in the past three seasons. The power appears to be trending upward for Detroit’s slugger, and a third career AL home run crown could be on tap for Cabrera in 2013.
The Dark Horses
Spare me the talk of Albert Pujols’ demise. Sure, he had his worst year as a pro with the Angeles in 2012, but his worst year included a .285/30/105 line. This is the same player that won the National League home run crown in 2009 and 2010 and finished second in two separate seasons, and if you replace his horrible first month of last year with even an average month by his standards, Pujols would have at least approached 40 homers. With a year to adjust to his new team and his new league, he should make a serious run at his first AL home run crown in 2013.
After failing to hit more than 32 home runs in a year for the first five seasons of his career, Josh Hamilton exploded for 43 long balls in 2012. The total put him just one shy of the American League crown, and although he leaves the Rangers’ hitter-friendly ballpark for Los Angeles in 2013, his power numbers shouldn’t really suffer. For one, Hamilton is as healthy as he has been in a while, and his 148 games played last year were his most since 2008. Not to mention the fact that he will now be hitting in an Angels’ lineup with Albert Pujols, Mike Trout and Mark Trumbo. Pitching around Hamilton won’t be an option, and he has shown that he can dominate at the plate when healthy. Another 40-plus home run campaign and an AL crown is a real possibility.
The Sleepers
Throw out his abysmal 2011 season, and Adam Dunn has been the most underrated power hitter in baseball for almost a decade. He has hit at least 38 home runs in eight of the last nine seasons, and although he has never won a league home run title, he did finish second three times in the National League. Dunn hit 41 homers last year with the White Sox and finished just three home runs away from the American League title. Sure, he will strike out at a ridiculous pace, but Dunn should also be back in the mix for the AL home run title.
He is coming off a year when he hit a rather pedestrian 30 home runs, but Prince Fielder’s power has stood the test of time. The Detroit slugger has hit at least 28 homers in all seven years of his career and has hit 30 or more six times. Not to mention the fact that Fielder led the National League in home runs once and finished second twice in his six years with the Milwaukee Brewers. Remember, he was adjusting to a new team and a new league last year. Don’t be surprised if Fielder’s power numbers come surging back in 2013.
2013 Most Regular Season Home Runs
Jose Bautista +400
Giancarlo Stanton +650
Miguel Cabrera +900
Albert Pujols +1100
Prince Fielder +1300
Ryan Howard +1500
Matt Kemp +1700
Ryan Braun +1900
Jay Bruce +1900
Josh Hamilton +1900
Mike Trumbo +2000
BJ Upton +2000
Adam Dunn +2200
Edwin Encarnacion +2500
Mike Trout +3000
Joey Votto +3200
Robinson Cano +3500
Adrian Beltre +3500
Evan Longoria +3800
Ike Davis +4000
Pedro Alvarez +4500
Troy Tulowitzki +4500
Adrian Gonzalez +4500
Yoenis Cespedes +5000
Carlos Gonzalez +5000
Justin Upton +5000
Chris Davis +5000
Mike Napoli +5000
Aramis Ramirez +6000
Wilin ROsario +6000
Curtis Granderson +6000
Mike Morse +6000
Adam Jones +6000
Mark Reynolds +6300
Josh Willingham +6500
Jason Heyward +6500
Allen Craig +7000
Josh Reddick +7000
Nelson Cruz +8500
Pablo Sandoval +10000
Matt Holliday +10000
Ryan Zimmerman +10000
Hanley Ramirez +10000
Dan Uggla +10000
David Ortiz +10000
David Wright +10000
Carlos Quentin +10000
Chase Headley +10000
Adam LaRoche +10000
Bryce Harper +10000
Buster Posey +10000
Carlos Beltran +10000
Andrew McCutchen +10000
Anthony Rizzo +10000
Billy Butler +10000
Mark Teixeira +20000
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