2012 MLB Postseason Picks: St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves Odds and Predictions – Free MLB Picks 10/5/2012

2012 MLB Playoffs Picks: Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves Odds and Predictions – Free MLB Picks 10/5/2012: Last season, the Atlanta Braves endured one of the most epic collapses in baseball history and handed a playoff spot to the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals, of course, went on to win the World Series. Fast forward to the 2012 postseason, and the two teams are set to meet in newly-formed wild-card round of the playoffs. St. Louis will head to Atlanta Friday to face the Braves in what basically amounts to a play-in game. The winner will go on to face the Washington Nationals, while the loser will have their season come to an abrupt end. Playing at home, the Braves are 1 ½-run favorites.

Atlanta won five of the six regular season meetings between the teams, but in a one-game playoff, anything can happen. Not to mention the fact that St. Louis has had a pretty good record in clutch situations over the past year and has won its share of games with its back against the wall. While both teams bring strong offenses into the matchup, runs could be tough to come by given the starting pitching. The Cardinals will send Kyle Lohse (16-3, 2.86 ERA) to the mound against Atlanta’s Kris Medlen (10-1, 1.57 ERA), and both teams have to be confident. Lohse has been excellent on the road all year, while Medlen has been nearly untouchable at home. More importantly for the Braves, they have won an MLB-record 23-straight games that Medlen has started.

The Cardinals Win If:

With a reliable, experienced starter on the mound in Lohse, a solid effort from the offense is all it should take for the Cardinals to win, and there is no shortage of offensive firepower in the St. Louis lineup. From sluggers Matt Holliday and Carlos Beltran to the playoff-proven bats of Yadier Molina and David Freese, there are plenty of players that could deliver a big hit for the Cardinals on Friday. Despite Medlen’s incredible numbers and impressive winning streak, he doesn’t have postseason experience. In fact, Atlanta has a lot of young players that will be tasting playoff baseball for the first time. If the Cardinals are able to capitalize on an early game jitters on the part of the Braves, this game could be over before it even begins. Sometimes there is no substitute for having been in this situation before.

The Braves Win If:

Medlen has been one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball this season and has been extra comfortable at Turner Field. If he takes to the mound and does what he has been doing for the past few months, the Braves are going to win. After all, he is backed by one of the best bullpens in the game, and closer Craig Kimbrel and his 1.06 ERA are waiting to slam the door in ninth. Granted, young players like Michael Bourn, Freddie Freeman and Jason Heyward may have some butterflies in the early innings, but veterans Dan Uggla and Chipper Jones should help settle things down. Meanwhile, Lohse has been solid but not unhittable for St. Louis this season. The Braves should be able to touch him up for three or four runs over the course of the game, and if Atlanta’s pitching performs to its numbers, three of four runs are all it will take.

Bottom Line:

While a slight edge has to go to the St. Louis offense, the pitching matchup clearly favors Atlanta. From start to finish, the Braves have the arms available Friday to hold any offense in check. It is hard to pick against the Cardinals given all the improbable wins they pulled out last October, but all good things must come to an end. Atlanta’s young players have been rock solid from the start of the year, and bouncing back from last year’s humiliating collapse was as much of a learning experience as any playoff series would have been. The Braves will push a few runs across the plate, and Medlen will get the ball to the bullpen with the lead. Kimbrel and company will take care of business from there.

Prediction: Atlanta Braves (-1 ½) Win the Game

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