2012 MLB Postseason Picks: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers Odds and Predictions – Free MLB Picks 10/5/2012

2012 MLB Playoffs Picks: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers Odds and Predictions – Free MLB Picks 10/5/2012:When the wild-card round was introduced prior to the start of the 2012 MLB season, I don’t think anybody expected the matchup that the American League has on tap for Friday night in Arlington. The Baltimore Orioles emerged from their typical roost at the cellar of the AL East to grab one of the spots, while the two-time defending AL pennant-winning Texas Rangers backed their way into the other spot after giving away the AL West in the final weeks. The end result is a battle between overachieving Orioles and the underachieving Rangers in a one-game playoff with the winner advancing to face the New York Yankees. Playing at home, the Rangers are 1 ½-run favorites.

During the regular season, Texas took five of the seven games between the teams, winning several games by a wide margin. Offensively, the Rangers are one of the league’s juggernauts, and they are even better when they play at home. The powerful Texas offense will back starter Yu Darvish Friday, and while his first year in the majors has been up and down, he has posted a 2.13 ERA in his last seven starts. Baltimore, on the other hand, will send Joe Saunders to the mound, who has an ERA over 4.00 on the year. Plain and simple, the numbers just aren’t as pretty for the Orioles on paper, but they have been winning all year. Throw in the fact that Texas is scuffling its way into the postseason and faces high expectations while Baltimore has nothing to lose, and nothing it set in stone.

The Orioles Win If:

Sometimes a team just turns out to be better than the sum of its individual parts, and that has been the case with Baltimore in 2012. The Orioles didn’t rank in the top 10 in runs scored or ERA during the regular season, but they found a way to win close games and win down the stretch. Darvish has been prone to bouts of wildness, and sluggers Adam Jones, Chris Davis and Matt Weiters are more than capable of making Texas pay if they get to bat with people on base. If Baltimore can grab the lead, the pressure is only going to mount for a Texas team that just choked away a division title. It is possible the bats could get tight for the Rangers. If Saunders can avoid getting shelled in the early innings, the Orioles have the arms in the bullpen to take a committee approach to shutting down the Rangers’ in the later innings.

The Rangers Win If:

Texas led the majors with 880 runs scored this season and had the third-best team batting average.  The Rangers’ lineup includes the like of Josh Hamilton, Adrian Beltre, Nelson Cruz and Mike Napoli. No matter who is at the plate, Texas is one swing away from putting runs on the board. Barring an absolute mental meltdown stemming from the collapse at the end of the regular season, the Rangers’ offense should do what it has been doing all season and score a bunch of runs. Meanwhile, Darvish has been the pitcher that Rangers shelled out millions for in the offseason since changing his delivery two months ago. With a strong bullpen behind him, a quality start is all it should take for the Rangers to advance on to the ALDS.

Bottom Line:

Despite the limping into the postseason and giving away an AL West crown, the Rangers still have the loaded lineup that took them to back-to-back World Series. Texas has shown plenty of poise, coming back from each World Series defeat to return to the playoffs. With plenty of playoff-tested veterans left on the roster, the Rangers will summon that same poise once again for this one-game playoff. Texas has the better arm on the mound, they have the better lineup, and they are playing in ballpark where they won 50 games during the regular season. Baltimore has overachieved all year, but the talent and playoff experience of the Rangers will win out.

Prediction: Texas Rangers (-1 ½) Win the Game

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