2011 World Series Favorite Boston Red Sox Odds to Win and Reasons to Not Bet on the Red Sox to Win the 2011 MLB World Series: The 2011 Major League Baseball season isn’t even two weeks old, but it is never too early to consider betting on a World Series team. After all, the closer it gets to the end of the season, the less favorable the odds become for bettors hoping to land a big payday. After a series of big name acquisitions during the offseason, a popular pick at the start of the year to win it all has been the Boston Red Sox (+300 odds to win the 2011 World Series). However, an 0-6 start for Boston should have bettors running the other way.
If the Texas Rangers crushing the Red Sox pitchers to the tune of 11 home runs in three games wasn’t bad enough, the Boston bats have been all but silent. With a team batting average below the Mendoza Line, it’s not hard to see why they can’t win a game. Boston’s $146 million man Carl Crawford has been so bad that he has been dropped to seventh in the lineup. Dustin Pedroia doesn’t look anywhere close to his pre-injury MVP form, and David Ortiz is again off to a painfully slow start. Adrian Gonzalez has been the lone bright spot, but he hasn’t had anyone on base to drive in.
The bottom line is that history does not favor the Red Sox. Since the 162-game season was adopted more than 50 years ago, there have been 46 teams to start a season 0-6. Of those 46 teams, only six have finished with a winning record. Not a single team that has started 0-6 has gone to open a season has won more than 90 games. With the New York Yankees in their division, the Red Sox can forget about winning the American League East with less than 90 victories. Winning the wildcard with less than 90 wins isn’t going to be easy either.
The Red Sox lineup is loaded, and they are going to win their share of games in 2011. That being said, the impact of an 0-6 start can’t be overlooked. Six games may not seem like a lot over the course of a 162-game season, but it is a bigger hole than most people think. We aren’t talking about a few isolated incidents. The Red Sox have put themselves in a position that 46 other teams have since 1961.
There is always a chance that Boston could become the first team to recover and win more than 90 games, but the odds are certainly not in their favor. With fewer than 90 wins, a playoff appearance is unlikely, and you can’t win the World Series without making the playoffs. If the Red Sox are able to make it to the postseason, the odds are probably going to be similar to their current odds anyway. For bettors that want to back Boston, just wait and see if they make the playoffs first. At (+300), you aren’t missing out on a ton of cash anyway.
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