2011 Kentucky Derby Expert Picks: Why Brilliant Speed is a Risky Play

2011 Kentucky Derby Expert Picks and Predictions – Why Brilliant Speed is a Risky Play: A relative unknown entering the Kentucky Derby prep race season, Brilliant Speed became a major player for “The Run for the Roses” with his surprising victory in the Blue Grass Stakes in April. Despite the win, a closer look at this horse’s history raises a few concerns, and bettors will want to think twice before backing Brilliant Speed on Derby day.

The horse’s overall record isn’t excellent the resume of an elite thoroughbred. He has made eight starts since July of 2010, and his victory in the Blue Grass Stakes was just his second victory. Granted, Brilliant Speed is riding a streak of six straight finishes of third or better, but none of these tune-ups featured the talent and depth that he will face in the Kentucky Derby. Brilliant Speed was a consistent top-three horse during the prep season, but when bettors go searching for a potential Derby winner, they need a horse that is a proven winner.

Another glaring issue with the horse’s resume is that six of his eight starts have come on either turf or synthetic surfaces. More alarming is the fact that both of Brilliant Speed’s victories have come on surfaces other than dirt, along with all six of his top-three finishes. In fact, the horse hasn’t finished higher than fourth on a dirt surface. For the record, Churchill Downs features a dirt surface, and Brilliant Speed doesn’t have the experience or a history of success on the dirt.

Supporters of the horse will point out that he does have experience running races more than one mile in length. Compared to some of the other frontrunners for the Derby, Brilliant Speed actually has more experience running longer distances than most. However, not one of the horse’s longer events took place on a dirt surface, and he hasn’t run any race on a dirt surface since the middle of 2010.

The bottom line is that Brilliant Speed’s reputation is the product of one strong race that happened to come a few weeks before the Kentucky Derby. His overall resume is solid but by no means spectacular. More importantly, he is almost completely unproven on dirt surfaces, and the small sample size he does have suggests that the horse is not built for the dirt.

With all the upsets that have occurred during the prep races, horses like Brilliant Speed are getting a lot of extra hype because of the lack of a clear cut favorite. However, bettors would be wise to avoid this potential trap. A lack of a favorite doesn’t mean that any horse can win, and Brilliant Speed appears to be one of the least likely candidates when you consider his accomplishments and history.

Check out the latest Kentucky Derby Odds as well as NSAwins.com’s 2011 Kentucky Derby Free Picks and Preview article.

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