With the NFL Draft coming up, it’s a good time to look at the future of college football and potentially one of the first players take in next year’s NFL Draft. The Heisman is one of the most heavily debated sporting awards given out every single year and I think that this year will be a hot topic, especially before the season.
The Matchup
Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence are the two highest-rated QB prospects to play college football since Vince Young and it just so happens that they are the same age, from the same area, and they play on the two national championship favorites. While people in the know over the last few years understand Fields’ talent, I think that he is seen by a lot of casual fans as a clear step below Lawrence as a prospect.
I disagree with this sentiment and I think that it is even more clear when we start to look at the Heisman odds and what players are in a position to succeed. Last year, I probably wrote 10 articles throughout the preseason about 2019 Heisman odds and in every single one of them, I said how much of a bad idea it was to bet Lawrence to win them. This year is no different to me.
The prospect Trevor Lawrence is a great player, but the college football star at Clemson is no in a situation to win the Heisman and he is even less likely than he was last year in my opinion. Clemson lost Tee Higgins and 4 offensive line starters while returning Travis Etienne and losing their OC. Lawrence has elite tools, but the Clemson offense is just not built to win a Heisman trophy.
They don’t play in competitive games to have big moments or big games. They don’t scheme players open nearly as much as offenses like Oklahoma or Ohio State do, to limit turnovers and bad decisions. Lawrence only has downside in most of his games because he should throw for 300 yards with a 3:0 TD:INT ratio against Wake Forest.
Fields is in a much better spot to win the Heisman this year compared to last year, when he was a finalist. He is in the second year in the offense, which should help him take more control of the game. He is also in a much, much better situation.
Fields has 2 Day 2 draft picks or better returning on the O-line with 1 returning starter and they will replace two linemen with two 5-star recruits with at least a year in the program. They also brought in 4 top 100 players, including 2 5-star receivers and lost JK Dobbins their workhorse RB. Fields should throw the ball more this season without Dobbins and a slightly worse defense.
His weapons are now more explosive than they were last year by a mile, and he has a 5-star true freshman QB backing up, which should allow Ohio State to let him run a little more. Last year, the lack of QB depth made Fields a pocket passer more than he should be based on his athletic gifts. I would set the line on Fields being the Heisman at +150 and I would still take it there. This is easy to me.
Upside
There is almost no doubt in my mind that Fields has a better season this year than he did last year and his stats last year would have won a lot of Heismans over the years. That being said, if you want to beat Fields, you need to have a crazy season.
Big 12 QBs
My other 2 favorite picks are Big 12 QBs from the best teams in the conference. Spencer Rattler is a phenomenal talent and should put up crazy stats at +1200. Sam Ehlinger probably has his best Texas team yet in his final season, so I think that combined with a bad defensive conference could give him some crazy moments and stats to make him viable at +2000.
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