Thursday Night ESPN College Football LSU @ Miss St Odds, Free Picks and Predictions – Week 3 NCAA Football Spreads and Odds

Week 3 Free College Football Picks and Spreads: LSU Tigers @ Mississippi St Bulldogs 2011 NCAA Football Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on ESPN 9/15/11: A battle of top 25 teams and SEC West rivals will take place Thursday night when the No. 3 LSU Tigers (2-0) go on the road to face the No. 25 Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-1). The Bulldogs will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing loss to Auburn last weekend when they were stopped on the goal line as time expired. Meanwhile, Les Miles’ Tigers still have dreams of playing for a national title in 2011-12. Any road game in the SEC can be dangerous, which is why LSU is only a 3 ½-point favorite despite being ranked in the top five nationally.

Thursday’s game will pit the strength of the Mississippi State offense against the strength of the LSU defense. The Bulldogs’ ground attack has been firing on all cylinders right out of the gate, averaging just over 320 yards per game on more than six yards per attempt. However, the Tigers are giving up less than 50 yards per game on the ground to opponents, and they held Northwestern State to negative rushing yards last weekend. Needless to say, something has to give, and whichever team does is going to be in some trouble.

Running back Vick Ballard has been the star of the running attack for the Bulldogs, piling up 301 rushing yards and four touchdowns through two games. Even more impressive is the fact that he is averaging almost 10 yards per carry. Dual-threat quarterback Chris Relf is the other key player in the Bulldogs ground game, and he has been productive both running and throwing the ball thus far. He will need to particularly effective through the air Thursday if the Bulldogs want any hope of creating some running lanes against the stout defensive front of LSU.

History is definitely on the Tigers’ side. LSU’s defense completely shut down the high-powered Oregon offense in the season opener, limiting Heisman hopeful running back LaMichael James to just 54 rushing yards on 3.0 yards per carry. As good as the Mississippi State offense has been this year, the Ducks’ offense was the nation’s best one year ago. If the Tigers can bring the Oregon offense to a grinding halt, there is a good chance they can do the same to the Bulldogs Thursday night.

Even if Mississippi State can develop a rhythm on the offensive side of the ball, the Bulldogs still have to figure out a way to slow down opponents defensively. Auburn torched the unit for 41 points last weekend, and LSU comes into this meeting averaging more than 40 points a game on the year. Quarterback Jarrett Lee has been better than expected in relief of the suspended Jordan Jefferson, and the Tigers have had no issues scoring points thus far. Unless the Bulldogs figure something out during a short week of preparation, Lee and company should find the end zone several times Thursday night as well.

While the home crowd and to some extent desperation are going to be major motivating factors for the Bulldogs, LSU’s defense is just too good to ignore. The statement performance against Oregon has to be lingering in the minds of Relf, Ballard and the rest of the Mississippi State offense. The Tigers will likely be able to severely limit the Bulldogs’ ground game, and the passing attack just isn’t good enough to beat a defense as disciplined and as talented as LSU’s. Without a stout defense of its own to fall back on, Mississippi State won’t be able to hang with the Tigers over the course of the game. It won’t be a blowout, but LSU should have things under control.

Prediction: LSU Tigers (-3 ½) Cover the Spread

Free College Football Picks and NCAAF Predictions: LSU -3 to cover the spread

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