Thursday Night ESPN College Football California @ Oregon Odds, Free Picks and Predictions – Week 6 NCAA Football Spreads and Odds

Week 6 Free College Football Picks and Spreads: California Golden Bears @ Oregon Ducks 2011 NCAA Football Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on ESPN 10/6/11: A pair of Pac-12 rivals will square off in primetime when the California Golden Bears visit the ninth-ranked Oregon Ducks Thursday night. Both teams are 3-1 on the year, but after playing in the national title game last season, oddsmakers have Chip Kelly’s Oregon team as a 23 ½-point favorite in this matchup. The Golden Bears didn’t do themselves any favors in the respect category by dropping their conference opener after playing a soft out-of-conference slate, but they have a chance to prove their record is legit by knocking off a top-10 team in the country.

California nearly did just that last year when they held Oregon’s high-powered offense in check, eventually falling 15-13 at home. Considering the Ducks finished the year averaging more than 50 points game, the defensive effort delivered by the Golden Bears can’t be overlooked. However, California could find a repeat performance a bit more difficult this time around. The Oregon offense tends to be even more explosive in front of the home crowd, and the Ducks haven’t lost a home game since early 2008.

The key to Thursday’s game will be the play of California’s front seven against Oregon running back LaMichael James. Back-to-back 200-yard efforts have James leading the nation in rush yards per game, and he is without a doubt one of the most explosive players in the country. That being said, the Golden Bears were able to bottle him up last season and have been among the best in the Pac-12 at slowing him down. If the California defense can hold James to around 100 yards on the ground as it has in the past, the Golden Bears may have a shot.

Of course, shutting down James means Oregon quarterback Darron Thomas could have amble opportunities to connect on big plays in the passing game. Thomas has been every bit as impressive as James this season, showing the ability to beat teams with his arm and his legs. Thomas has dealt with some inconsistencies from the pocket in the past, but he has looked polished and poised as a passer this year. His added experience and maturity could prove to be too much for a California defense that will be focused on shutting down James and spread-option ground attack.

The bigger issue for the Golden Bears could be their own offense. After all, they managed just 13 points in the loss to Oregon last season and just 23 points against a mediocre Washington team a loss to open conference play last weekend. California QB Zach Maynard has shown he can pile up yardage in the passing game, but finishing off drives has been an issue thus far. There should be points to be had against a Ducks’ defense that has surrendered 40 to LSU and 31 to Arizona already this season, but the Golden Bears have to get touchdowns when they have the chance in order to stay close.

In the end, their stout defense against the run should keep the Golden Bears from getting blown out. They probably won’t hold the Ducks to 15 points again, but by limiting long runs from James, California will make Thomas and the rest of the offense move the ball down the field in a more conventional method. Meanwhile, Maynard and the Golden Bears’ offense should put up enough points to keep the score reasonable. Last year’s near upset was probably a fluke, but California’s track record for slowing down James makes the Golden Bears a reasonable pick with all the points they are getting.

Prediction: California Golden Bears (+24) Cover the Spread

Free College Football Picks and NCAAF Predictions: California +24 to cover the spread

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