Saturday College Football Picks – West Virginia @ Maryland Odds and Predictions – Week 3 NCAA Football Spreads and Odds

Week 3 Free College Football Picks and Spreads: West Virginia Mountaineers @ Maryland Terrapins 2011 NCAA Football Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on ESPNU Saturday 9/17/11: The Big East and ACC have been taken a lot of heat in recent years as being the weakest of the power conferences, but when No. 18 West Virginia (2-0) visits Maryland (1-0) Saturday afternoon, one of the much-maligned conferences has a chance to make a statement. The game will be a test for both teams as the Mountaineers have feasted on lesser competition, while the Terrapins haven’t played since a big season-opening victory against conference rival Miami. West Virginia handled Maryland in Morgantown last year, but with the series shifting to College Park this weekend, the Mountaineers are 1 ½-point underdogs.

Two of the more underrated quarterbacks in both conferences will be on display in this matchup. Geno Smith has carried the Mountaineers offense in 2011-12, and he did the same in West Virginia’s 31-17 win against Maryland last season when he threw four touchdown passes. Meanwhile, the Terrapins boast young QB Danny O’Brien. He had a solid debut season last year, and threw for 348 yards in the opener against the Hurricanes. With both teams putting the ball in the air upwards of 40 times, this game could quickly develop into a shootout.

While both teams like to throw the ball, the difference is that Maryland can run the ball when needed as well. Terrapins running back Davin Megget ran for nearly 100 yards against a very athletic Miami defensive unit, and new coach Randy Edsall showed during his tenure at Connecticut that he isn’t shy about running the ball to close out games. O’Brien and the passing game may get Maryland the lead, but Megget could seal the deal in the fourth quarter.

West Virginia on the other hand has been unable to establish a running game despite facing two weak opponents. In fact, no Mountaineer has been able to rush for as many yards this year as Megget despite playing in one more game. The departure of Noel Devine left a big hole in the West Virginia backfield that the team has yet to fill. Smith has picked up the slack thus far, but a one-dimensional offense is always risky. If the Terrapins can take away the passing game, the Mountaineers could be helpless.

The good news for West Virginia is that stopping Smith has been easier said than done. The Terrapins no this as well as anybody after getting picked apart by Smith and the West Virginia passing game one year ago. Playing in the Big East has kept Smith under the radar on a national level, but he is arguably the best QB in his conference. Without any noteworthy additions in the secondary, Maryland is no better equipped to stop Smith this year than it was last season. Granted, Devine ran for more than 130 yards in that game, but Maryland is missing receiver Torrey Smith, who scored both touchdowns for the Terrapins.

The X-factor could be the unique 3-3-5 stack defense played by the Mountaineers. O’Brien could need some time to adjust to the added speed and different coverages provided by the system. While Maryland was able to come from behind against Miami, the Hurricanes were missing several key players, including their starting QB. West Virginia isn’t missing their leader, and Smith and company are going to be tough to catch if they build an early lead.

In the end, this should be a close contest between too pretty evenly matched teams. However, the experience and talent of Smith should give a slight edge to the Mountaineers. It won’t be as easy as last year, but West Virginia should pull it out on the road.

Prediction: West Virginia Mountaineers (+1 ½) Cover the Spread

Free College Football Picks and NCAAF Predictions: West Virginia +1.5 to cover the spread

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