Saturday College Football Picks – Michigan @ Michigan St Odds and Predictions – Week 7 NCAA Football Spreads and Odds

Week 7 Free College Football Picks and Spreads: Michigan Wolverines @ Michigan State Spartans 2011 NCAA Football Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on ABC Saturday 10/15/11: One of the fiercest in-state rivalries will add another chapter this weekend when the 11th-ranked Michigan Wolverines (6-0) travel to East Lansing to face the 23rd-ranked Michigan State Spartans (4-1). Both programs have conference title aspirations in 2011-12, and the winner of Saturday’s matchup will have sole possession of first place in the Legends Division and will control its own destiny in regards to the Big Ten Title Game. Not to mention the fact that the winner will have bragging rights over their rival for the year. The Wolverines are undefeated, but they are 2 ½-point underdogs heading into a hostile environment this weekend.  

Michigan boasts the top player on the field in this matchup thanks to quarterback Denard Robinson. The Heisman hopeful is shredding opposing defenses with both his arm and his legs this season, accounting for more than 1,100 yards passing and more than 700 yards rushing. He has 18 total touchdowns through six games, including a game-winning touchdown pass in the closing seconds against Notre Dame. For what it’s worth, Notre Dame happens to be the team that handed the Spartans their only loss this year.

Despite Robinson’s incredible numbers and uncanny versatility, Michigan State actually contained the star QB last year during last year’s 34-17 victory in Michigan. Robinson was picked off three times in the loss and was held to less than 100 yards on the ground despite carrying the ball 21 times. When Robinson struggles, the Wolverines tend to follow suit. If Michigan State can contain him once again this weekend, the Spartans’ chances of winning skyrocket.

Considering the numbers MSU has been putting up on the defensive side of the ball, containing Robinson isn’t out of the question. In fact, the Spartans lead the country in terms of yards allowed. Granted, their competition hasn’t been great, and they gave up 31 points in one of their bigger tests of the year against the Fighting Irish. However, they also completely stifled the Ohio State Buckeyes offense in Columbus, registering nine sacks. In the end, Saturday’s game could hinge on whether or not the Spartans’ defense looks more like the unit that shut down the Buckeyes or more like the unit that couldn’t stop Notre Dame.

While the Spartans will have their work cut out for them when it comes to shutting down Robinson, the Wolverines defense won’t exactly have it easy either. Despite struggling a bit thus far, the Michigan State offense should find plenty of scoring opportunities against a Michigan defense that has found itself in several shootouts already in 2011-12. Last year, MSU running back Edwin Baker gashed the Wolverines defense, and the Spartans ran for almost 300 yards on the ground as a team, including three scores. With star receiver B.J. Cunnigham putting pressure on the suspect Michigan secondary, the ground game could control the action this year as well.

When all is said and done, this matchup will be decided by which defense steps up. The Spartans have by far the better numbers on paper, but Robinson is the ultimate X-factor. Robinson can turn one slip up into a quick six points. That being said, the Spartans showed last season that they are able to limit Robinson’s explosive plays, and controlling the tempo of the game with their running game is a big part of that equation. Baker and company should find room to work once again against a Michigan defensive unit that is still a work in progress. This game will likely come down to the closing minutes, but the Spartans should ride their ground game to another win against their rivals.

Prediction: Michigan State Spartans (-2 ½) Cover the Spread

Free College Football Picks and NCAAF Predictions: Michigan St -2.5 to cover the spread

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