Saturday College Football Picks – #1 LSU @ #2 Alabama Odds and Predictions – Week 10 NCAA Football Spreads and Odds

Week 10 Free College Football Picks and Spreads: LSU Tigers @ Alabama Crimson Tide 2011 NCAA Football Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on CBS Saturday 11/5/11: It is the matchup that college football fans have been waiting for all season, and it is being billed as this season’s Game of the Century. When the top-ranked LSU Tigers (8-0) travel to Tuscaloosa to face the second-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0), both SEC and national title hopes will be on the line for both teams. There is little doubt that these to programs are the best in the country right now, and the game could even end up being a preview of the BCS Championship. LSU owns is No. 1 entering the game, but the Crimson Tide is a five-point favorites playing at home.

When breaking down the matchup, it only makes sense to start with the defenses. After all, the top two teams in the nation also own the two best defenses in the country as well. Alabama is giving up the fewest points in the nation at just 6.9 per game. The Tigers aren’t too bad either, giving up just 11.5 per contest. Considering LSU had to hold the high-powered Oregon offense in check and the Crimson Tide had to shut down the Arkansas Razorbacks’ attack, the defensive numbers are even more impressive.

Both units are loaded with NFL talent, and while the Tigers have an edge in the secondary, Alabama has the superior group of linebackers. Up front, both teams are stout. However, the Tigers have a slight edge in terms of depth at the defensive tackle position. Opponents haven’t been able to run against either unit. The Tigers give up less than 80 yards per game and rank third in the country. Meanwhile, Alabama owns the top rushing defense, surrendering less than 45 yards on the ground on average.

It will be interesting to see if the defenses continue to hold up against the run because both offenses are centered on the ground game. The Tigers enter the meeting averaging almost 190 yards a game, while the Crimson Tide averages almost 230 yards a contest. Alabama should have an edge in terms of establishing some sort of ground attack. The Crimson Tide has arguably the top offensive line in the country, and more importantly, the team has one of the best running backs. Trent Richardson is closing in on 1,000 yards and has already scored 17 touchdowns while averaging 6.5 yards per carry. A big game could not only power the Crimson Tide to victory, but it could land Richardson the Heisman as well.

LSU backup quarterback Jordan Jefferson could be an X-factor in the contest. Jefferson has been coming off the bench since returning from suspension, but he has big arm that can stretch the field, and he can make plays outside the pocket with his legs. In what should be a close game, Jefferson’s ability to pick up first downs with his legs could by crucial. Of course, Alabama’s defense will likely have something to say about that.

Although it is tough to measure in statistics, coaching will play a role in the final outcome. LSU coach Les Miles has won a national title with the Tigers, but he has been living with the stigma that he did so with current Alabama coach Nick Saban’s players. Saban himself has won a national title at both LSU and for the Crimson Tide, and more importantly, he has never lost to a team two years in a row since becoming head coach at Alabama. For the record, the Tigers knocked off Saban and company last year 24-21. History says that won’t happen again, and Saban will try to move to 7-0 in so called revenge games.

The game is a statistical wash. The No. 1 and No. 2 defenses will be facing off, along with the 12th and 13th-best offense in the country. The Tigers have a playmaking secondary, but in a game that should feature the running game from both sides, Alabama’s linebacking core could rule the night. In the end, Richardson gives the Crimson Tide the best offensive weapon on the field, and his ability to break a few big runs behind his massive offensive line should be the difference in a tight game.

Prediction: Alabama Crimson Tide (-4.5) Covers the Spread

Free College Football Picks and NCAAF Predictions: Alabama -4.5 to cover the spread

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