Oregon @ Arizona Odds and Predictions: ESPN2 Saturday Night College Football Picks

Week 4 Free College Football Picks and Spreads: Oregon Ducks @ Arizona Wildcats 2011 NCAA Football Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on ESPN2 Saturday 9/24/11: When the No. 10 Oregon Ducks (2-1) travel to Arizona (1-2) Saturday night, the Wildcats will be preparing to face their third straight opponent ranked inside the top 10. The first two attempts have ended poorly with Arizona being blown out by Oklahoma State and Stanford. Considering the Ducks haven’t lost a PAC-12 game in more than two years, the Wildcats’ road isn’t going to get any easier this weekend. Not surprisingly, the conferences dominant team is favored by 15 points on the road in this one.

Arizona’s defense has been shredded the last two weekends, and Oregon’s offense was the best in the country last season. Chip Kelly’s quick strike attack is at it once again this season, recovering from a lackluster debut against LSU, to pile up almost 800 yards rushing and more than 800 yards passing in just three games. The same offense had no issues putting points on the board against the Wildcats last season, and the Ducks cruised to a 48-29 victory at home.

For the Wildcats, figuring out how to slow down either the running game or passing game for Oregon will be crucial. Unfortunately, the Ducks have Heisman candidates leading both attacks. Quarterback Darron Thomas is a dual-threat player that has been even better throwing the ball in 2011. Meanwhile, running back LaMichael James is coming off a year when he scored 21 rushing touchdowns. He appears to be finding a rhythm after a 200-yard game last weekend, which could be bad news for the Wildcats. The Arizona defense couldn’t stop Brandon Weeden or Andrew Luck, and it likely won’t be able to stop Thomas and James either.

While the Wildcats’ defense hasn’t been able to slow down opponents this year, quarterback Nick Foles has done his best to help the offense keep up. Thanks to Foles, Arizona ranks first in the PAC-12 and fifth in the country in terms of passing yards per game. His numbers could get even better the rest of the way with his top target Juron Criner set to return from an emergency appendectomy. However, both Foles and Criner were healthy against the Ducks last season, and the Wildcats still got blown out despite piling up nearly 450 yards through the air. If it takes 450 yards to lose by almost three touchdowns, imagine what Foles and company would have to do to actually win.

The other problem for Arizona is the complete lack of a running game. The Wildcats are currently dead last in the conference, averaging less than 60 yards per contest. Being one dimensional has caused serious red zone problems for Foles and company. Arizona has moved the ball up and down the field, but finishing off drives through the air has been difficult when the field gets shortened. Unless the ground game suddenly comes to life, Oregon should be able to slow down Foles around the goal line, forcing a few field goals.

In the end, Arizona seems destined to endure a third straight defeat to a top-10 team. The Ducks are probably the best offense the Wildcats have faced during this brutal stretch, and the Arizona defense has done nothing to prove it can slow down an elite offense up to this point. More importantly, Foles has already shown that even while putting up incredible passing numbers, he simply can’t do enough to keep the Wildcats close to a powerhouse team. Arizona may approach 30 points, but the Ducks should still be able to cover the spread with James and Thomas leading the scoring barrage.

Prediction: Oregon Ducks (-15) Cover the Spread

Free College Football Picks and NCAAF Predictions: Oregon -15 to cover the spread

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