NCAA Football Predictions – Michigan St @ Notre Dame Odds and Free Picks on NBC – Week 3 NCAA Football Spreads and Odds

Week 3 Free College Football Picks and Spreads: Michigan St Spartans @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2011 NCAA Football Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on NBC Saturday 9/17/11: After last year’s 34-31 overtime thriller, expectations were high for Saturday’s meeting between Michigan State and Notre Dame. However, the surprising 0-2 start for the Fighting Irish has sucked some of the glamour out of the matchup. That being said, there is still plenty on the line for both teams as the Spartans visit South Bend with a 2-0 record and looking for more, coming off an 11-2 season a year ago when they captured a share of the Big Ten title. Meanwhile, Brian Kelly and company are looking to stop the bleeding and attempt to salvage the 2011-12 season before it’s too late.

For Notre Dame, this weekend’s game starts and ends with taking care of the football. The Fighting Irish have piled up plenty of yardage in their first two games, but 10 turnovers have been absolutely devastating. Worse yet, five of the turnovers have occurred in the red zone. Having lost two games by a combined seven points, it is likely that Notre Dame would be undefeated had just a few of the turnovers been eliminated. The oddsmakers apparently believe Kelly’s offense will get its act together this weekend because the Fighting Irish are 4 ½-point favorites in this one.

One thing is certain – the Fighting Irish certainly can’t afford another handful of giveaways if they are going to knock off the Spartans. Recent history says that Saturday’s meeting is going to be tight, back-and-forth affair. It has been nearly two decades since Notre Dame defeated Michigan State by more than four points, and overall, six of the last 10 meetings between the schools have been decided by less than four points. It took a fake field goal from the Spartans to seal the victory last year, and a similar game-changing play will likely decide this weekend’s outcome as well.

Aside from the turnovers, the other major concern for the Irish has to be slowing down the Michigan State ground game. The two-headed monster of Le’Veon Bell and Edwin Baker topped 200 yards in the win against Notre Dame last season, averaging almost seven yards per carry. Both will be in the Spartans’ backfield this weekend, and a porous Irish defense could be in for another long afternoon.

For the Spartans defense, finding a way to slow down receiver Michael Floyd will be crucial to controlling the Notre Dame offense. Floyd leads the nation with 25 receptions and is third in receiving yards. Quarterback Tommy Rees has shown particular chemistry with Floyd, but he also tends to look for him too often. If the Michigan State secondary can bait Rees into targeting Floyd one too many times, the Spartans could come away with big turnover.

On paper, the Fighting Irish have the superior offense. However, the same was true in the first two games of the year, but turnovers and bad defense turned potential wins into losses. In a series that is already famous for close games, it’s hard to trust Kelly’s bunch right now. Playing in front of the home crowd may help the defense a bit, but the relentless rushing attack of the Spartans is going to take its toll. Notre Dame is going to find it tough to win Saturday, and a comfortable victory seems next to impossible. Getting 4 ½ points, Michigan State seems like the safer bet.

Prediction: Michigan State Spartans (+4 ½) Cover the Spread

Free College Football Picks and NCAAF Predictions: Michigan St +5 to cover the spread

Stop by NSAwins.com daily throughout the NCAA Football season for daily Free College Football Picks and Vegas College Football Lines plus daily updated BCS National Championship Futures Odds.