Free College Football Bowl Picks and Spreads: Arizona State Sun Devils vs Boise State Broncos 2011 MAACO Bowl Las Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on ESPN Thursday 12/22/11: The current BCS system can be a tough one for college football programs outside of the non-automatic qualifying conferences, and it is a fate that Boise State knows all too well. In all likelihood, the seventh-ranked Broncos (11-1) are a missed field goal away from playing for the national title. Instead, they were snubbed by the BCS bowls completely and will take to the field Thursday night to face the Arizona State Sun Devils (6-6) in the MAACO Bowl Las Vegas. The Sun Devils fell apart down the stretch after starting 6-2, and as a result, Boise State is 14-point favorite in this one.
It is easy to assume that the Broncos might have trouble focusing for such a pedestrian bowl game after being so close to playing for the ultimate prize. However, Boise State faced a similar situation last season after losing just one game but being left out of a BCS bowl. In fact, the Broncos are making their second straight appearance in the MAACO Bowl, and if their 26-3 victory against Utah last season is any indication, this isn’t the type of team to feel sorry for itself.
On the field, an aerial assault could be in the works. Both the Broncos and the Sun Devils like to air it out, and both teams have been able to put up points throughout the year. Both offenses rank in the top 15 in terms of passing yards per game, and both rank in the top 25 in terms of points scored. That being said, the Broncos offense has been the more potent of the two, averaging more than 43 points per game compared to 33.9 for Arizona State. The Sun Devils offense was strong this year, but the Broncos’ unit was elite. If the game does become a shootout, Boise State has to like its chances to outscore ASU.
Quarterback play is going to be critical in Thursday’s matchup, and the edge again has to go to Boise State. After all, senior Kellen Moore is one of the most-decorated signal callers in NCAA history. His 49-3 record as a starter makes him the winningest QB in history, and his 140 touchdown passes put him in the top five as well. This season, Moore completed nearly 75 percent of his passes, while tossing 41 touchdowns on his way to being named a finalist for the Heisman trophy. Arizona State QB Brock Osweiler threw for more than 3,600 yards and 24 touchdowns, but his numbers pale in comparison.
Defense could be the deciding factor in this one. While the Broncos secondary has had issues at times, especially in the team’s lone loss to TCU, the Sun Devils’ defense has been consistently bad. Arizona State yield more than 400 yards of offense per game, and the high-powered Boise State offense is more than capable of exploiting the porous unit. To make matters worse, ASU’s playmaking linebacker Vontaze Burfict may not play in the game as he faces punishment for yet another emotional outburst. Even with Burfict, stopping Moore and the Broncos could be tough for the Sun Devils.
In the end, this game will likely come down to the Broncos doing all they can to send Moore out on a high note. He will go down in history as one of the top collegiate quarterbacks to ever play, and while Boise State wants to be in a BCS bowl, the Broncos won’t embarrass themselves just because things didn’t go their way. In fact, the opposite could be true. Boise State has a chance to make a serious statement, and with Arizona State’s weak defense likely providing little resistance, Moore and company should light up the scoreboard and show the country they deserved to be playing in a BCS bowl.
Prediction: Boise State Broncos (-13.5) Cover the Spread
Free College Football Picks and NCAAF Predictions: Boise St -13.5 to cover the spread
| Poinsettia Bowl: Arizona St vs Boise St Date: 12/22/11 Time: 8:00 PM EST on ESPN Vegas Odds – Favorite: Boise St -13.5 Total: Over/Under 66.5 |
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