Friday Night ESPN College Football BYU @ TCU Odds, Free Picks and Predictions – Week 9 NCAA Football Spreads and Odds

Week 9 Free College Football Picks and Spreads: BYU Cougars @ TCU Horned Frogs 2011 NCAA Football Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on ESPN 10/28/11: Two of the top programs from non-automatic qualifying conferences will go head to head Friday night in primetime when the BYU Cougars (6-2) go on the road to face the TCU Horned Frogs (5-2). Both teams were hoping to crash the BCS party in 2011-12, especially the Horned Frogs on the heels of their Rose Bowl win last season. However, early losses for both BYU and TCU have ended any hope of a prestigious bowl game. Still, both teams have something to play for, and double-digit wins is a realistic possibility for the Horned Frogs and Cougars. Playing at home, TCU is a 13 ½-point favorite.

On paper, this matchup appears to be a mismatch in favor of the Horned Frogs. TCU boasts the eighth-best scoring offense in the nation, averaging almost 44 points per game. On the ground, the Horned Frogs rank in the top 20 nationally with almost 220 yards per game. However, the offense is far from one dimensional, and the TCU passing attack is averaging more than 230 yards per game.

Not surprisingly, the Horned Frogs’ offense is loaded with explosive playmakers. Running back Waymon James is averaging almost eight yards per carry, and receiver Josh Boyce is well on his way to a 1,000 yard season. Quarterback Casey Pachall runs the show, and he has tossed 17 touchdowns to just four interceptions this season. While the trio is already potent, future opponents should really be worried. All three above mentioned players are only sophomores.

In past years, the potent TCU offense would be backed by one of the top defenses in the country. That hasn’t been the case this season, and while the Horned Frogs still rank in the top 40 in terms of points allowed, they have been a far cry from the units that have ranked in the top five the last three seasons. Worse yet, the unit has been gashed in the team’s two losses, giving up 50 points to Baylor and 40 points to Southern Methodist.

At just 26.8 points per game, the BYU doesn’t seem like the group capable of taking advantage of a weakened Horned Frogs defense. However, the numbers are a bit misleading. After getting off to a 2-2 start and scoring less than 20 points in three of the games, the Cougars made a change at quarterback. BYU is 4-0 since junior Riley Nelson took over, scoring 27 points or more in all four games. He has tossed 11 touchdowns in his four starts, and he has been making plays with his legs as well, topping 60 yards on the ground in every start as well. For the record, TCU failed miserably to contain the two mobile QBs it has faced this year, and Nelson could be in for a big game.

The BYU defense isn’t too shabby either. Aside from a horrible showing against Utah, the Cougars have been solid. For the year, they are giving up just over 21 points a game. While the chances of the unit shutting down the high-powered TCU offense are slim, the Cougars are capable of keeping the score reasonable and giving their much-improved offense a fighting chance.

In the end, the game has a chance to be a lot closer than both teams’ averages suggest. The Cougars’ offense is much more dynamic with Nelson running the show, and BYU has become a team capable of scoring 30-plus points. There is a good chance this game could develop into a shootout, and while TCU’s offense is more suited to that style of play, the Cougars should be able to hang around and cover the double-digit spread.

Prediction: BYU Cougars (+13 ½) Cover the Spread

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