Free College Football Picks: Boise State @ Michigan State Odds and Predictions – NCAA Football Picks 8/31/2012

2012 College Football Picks: Boise State @ Michigan State Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 8/31/2012: As the 24th-ranked Boise State Broncos prepare to face the 13th-ranked Michigan State Spartans Friday night, there are some striking similarities between the two programs. Both have been flirting with BCS bowls the past two seasons, only to have heartbreaking losses keep them on the outside. More importantly for Friday’s matchup, both sides will be replacing long-time, successful starters at quarterback. The expectations have been raised for both these teams, and starting the 2012 season with a loss isn’t going to help either side reach their lofty goals. Of course, the winning team will have a nice resume-building win right of the gate. Heading to Spartan Stadium, the Broncos are 6 ½-point underdogs.

While Boise State may be the underdog, recent history says the Spartans should be more than a little worried about the meeting. The Broncos have opened each of the past three seasons by knocking off a highly-ranked opponent. The hit list includes the Oregon, Virginia Tech and Georgia, and all three teams either won or played for their respective conference championship the year the Broncos pulled off the upset. The bottom line is that this is the same position Boise State has been in for the past three season openers, and the Broncos have a habit of walking away the winner.

That being said, one big piece of the puzzle is missing for Boise State. Former quarterback Kellen Moore is now with the Detroit Lions after completing an incredible college career that saw him amass a 50-3 record as a starter. Junior Joe Southwick will be charged with the tall task of replacing Moore. On the plus side, Southwick knows the system and got the chance to watch Moore work from the sidelines. On the other hand, there is no substitute for real game experience. Not to mention that star running back Doug Martin is now in the NFL, as well, and a majority of the pressure will fall on Southwick and the passing attack to put points on the board.

Southwick’s inexperience isn’t going to be helped by the fact that Michigan State’s defense should be one of the best units in the country. Eight starters are back from last year’s group that allowed the ninth-fewest points and fifth-fewest points in the country. Among the returning starters are cornerback Johnny Adams, linebacker Denicos Allen, defensive end William Gholston and linebacker Max Bullough. All four players on multiple preseason lists for various awards, and there is no shortage of star power and playmakers for the Michigan State’s defense.

Granted, the Spartans will be trying to replace Kirk Cousins at quarterback on the offensive side of the ball, but unlike Boise State, Michigan State returns one of its top running back. Bruising rusher Le’Veon Bell ran for nearly 1,000 yards and 13 scores last season as part of a two-back system, and as the full-time starter in 2012, he should excel. Bell is a big, punishing rusher that is perfectly suited for the Big Ten. He wears down defenses with his power and has enough speed to break off big runs against tired tacklers. In a matchup of two teams that have several question marks on the offensive side of the ball, Bell is the most proven weapon on either side.

If the game does go down to the wire, the Spartans have to like their chances. Michigan State kicker Dan Conroy is one of the most accurate in the country, and the senior is a three-year starter that is no stranger to kicking in pressure-packed situations. Boise State, on the other hand, has seen potential appearances in the BCS Championship Game slip away because of missed field goals in each of the past two seasons.

In the end, there are actually plenty of questions marks for both teams despite both being ranked in the top 25. However, a proven running back and excellent defense give the Spartans two reliable options to fall back on. Southwick was already facing an unenviable task, and kicking off his first year as starter against one of the top defenses in the country doesn’t bode well for a Boise State offense that is used to putting plenty of points on the board. Yes, the Broncos have a history of upsets on their side, but after catching three straight power programs by surprise, the Spartans won’t underestimate their opponent. Powered by its defense, Michigan State should be able to control the action and pull out the win at home.

Prediction: Michigan State Spartans (-6 ½) Cover the Spread 

Boise State @ Michigan St Vegas Odds and Total
Line: Michigan State -6.5
Total: Over/Under 47
Television: ESPN at 7PM EST

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