College Football Predictions – LSU @ West Virginia Odds and Picks on ESPN – Week 4 NCAA Football Spreads and Odds

Week 4 Free College Football Picks and Spreads: LSU Tigers @ West Virginia Mountaineers 2011 NCAA Football Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on ESPN Saturday 9/24/11: A pair of top 25 teams will go head to head when No. 2 LSU (3-0) visits No. 16 West Virginia (3-0) Saturday night. The Tigers have been knocking off ranked opponents left and right and appear more than capable of winning both the SEC and the national title. Meanwhile, West Virginia is trying to prove that it belongs in the national title conversation and bring a little respect to the much-maligned Big East Conference. Despite going into Morgantown, Les Miles’ bunch is 5 ½-point favorites in this one.

Considering LSU’s 2011 resume already includes wins against Oregon and Mississippi State, it is hard not to give the Tigers the edge. After all, both the Ducks and the Bulldogs were ranked in the top 25 when the Tigers shut them down. Unless the Mountaineers figure out how to crack the suffocating LSU defense, they could suffer a similar fate Saturday night.

West Virginia knows the Tigers’ defense all too well. Last year, the Mountaineers managed just 14 points in a 20-14 loss to LSU in Baton Rouge. Although West Virginia gets the advantage of playing at home this time around, the Tigers have already proven they can win in a tough environment. LSU went to Mississippi State at night, and held the Bulldogs to just six points. If the Mountaineers are going to pull an upset, it isn’t going to be because the Tigers were rattled by the road atmosphere. Miles’ group has been in too many big games for pressure to become a factor.

For the Tigers, the continued solid play from quarterback Jarrett Lee will be crucial. He has been efficient since being named emergency starter for the suspended Jordan Jefferson. With one of the best defenses in the nation backing him up, Lee has kept his mistakes to a minimum while managing an offense led by a power running game. Freshman running back Spencer Ware has got off to a hot start, and he could continue to impress in this one. LSU’s massive offensive, and Ware is a physical rusher. The combination could pose serious problems for a West Virginia 3-3-5 defense that is breaking in new starters and is giving up a lot in terms of size.

If the Mountaineers are going to stun the Tigers, quarterback Geno Smith is going to have to lead the way. Smith might just be the best QB nobody has heard of, and his numbers have been even better in 2011. He has firmly entrenched himself as the top signal caller in the Big East, and 300-yard passing games are becoming the norm. Smith can do some damage with his legs as well, but he is a pass-first quarterback. He will likely need to pass early and often Saturday because West Virginia struggles to run the football, and the Tigers have already dominated two of the best running teams in the country. It will likely be up to Smith to carry the load on offense.

In the end, Smith and the Mountaineers just seem overmatched. The Tigers defense has already stopped Heisman hopefuls, Darron Thomas, LaMichael James and Vick Ballard in their tracks, and Smith will be the next star to be targeted by LSU. The Mountaineers showed last season that they can hold their own on the defensive side of the ball, but it will be a chore for their offense to reach double digits. Another close but comfortable win for Miles and the Tigers should be in order.

Prediction: LSU Tigers (-5 ½) Cover the Spread

Free College Football Picks and NCAAF Predictions: LSU -5.5 to cover the spread

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